DHI(SZ:002487) Haitong Securities·2024-05-12 05:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1]. Core Views - The company's overseas business revenue share has significantly increased, with 2023 revenue from wind power equipment, new energy generation, and other businesses being 4.146 billion, 132 million, and 47 million respectively. The gross margins for wind power equipment and new energy generation are 20.76% and 89.65%, with the former showing a year-on-year increase of 5.65 percentage points [4]. - In 2023, domestic and overseas revenue accounted for 60.36% and 39.64% respectively, with year-on-year changes of -38.84% and +104.63%. The gross margins were 20.97% and 27.20% respectively. The export business is led by offshore products, with nearly 100,000 tons shipped annually, and sales increasing over 4000% year-on-year [4]. - The company has secured a capacity lock agreement with a European offshore wind developer for up to 400,000 tons of capacity from now until 2030, receiving a one-time payment of 14 million euros. This positions the company favorably to benefit from the recovering global offshore wind demand and the shortage of overseas capacity [8]. - The company's operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow of -96 million in Q1 2024, compared to 809 million in 2023, which was a year-on-year increase of 620.76% [9]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 623 million and 894 million in 2024 and 2025 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.98 and 1.40 yuan per share. The valuation is set at a PE ratio of 25-30x for 2024, leading to a reasonable value range of 24.43-29.32 yuan [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 was 4.325 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 15.3%. The net profit was 425 million, down 5.6% year-on-year. The gross margin for 2023 was 23.44%, an increase of 6.72 percentage points year-on-year [10][17]. - The forecast for 2024 and 2025 indicates revenues of 5.666 billion and 7.400 billion respectively, with net profits projected at 623 million and 894 million [21]. Product Segmentation - Revenue from wind tower piles in 2023 was 4.146 billion, with a gross margin of 20.76%. The revenue from power generation was 132 million, with a gross margin of 89.65% [12]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue from its high-margin overseas business, contributing to improved overall profitability [17]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading exporter of offshore wind power products, benefiting from a global market forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 28% from 2024 to 2028 [8]. - The company has a competitive edge due to the shortage of offshore wind infrastructure capacity globally, particularly in Europe [8].