金属价格上涨将增厚矿山版块利润

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [4][6][51]. Core Views - The company's net profit for 2023 decreased by 43% year-on-year, with revenue reaching 65.6 billion yuan, an increase of 18.5%. The decline in profit is primarily attributed to falling lead and zinc prices and a decrease in production [2][14]. - The acquisition of the copper smelting plant, Shandong Zhongjin Copper Industry, has significantly contributed to profit, with a net profit of 550 million yuan from a production of 403,000 tons of cathode copper in 2023 [2][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from rising copper, zinc, and lead prices, with the Maimon mine projected to produce 30,000 tons of copper and zinc annually, becoming a key growth driver [3][40]. Financial Performance and Forecast - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of 690 million yuan, with a non-recurring net profit of 643 million yuan. The operating cash flow increased by 45.3% to 1.57 billion yuan [2][14]. - Revenue projections for 2024 estimate a slight decline to 62.7 billion yuan, with net profit expected to recover to 783 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 13.8% in 2024 [5][51]. - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.21 yuan in 2024, increasing to 0.33 yuan by 2026, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 23.5x, 21.2x, and 15.0x for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][51]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as a leading producer in the domestic lead and zinc mining sector, with substantial reserves of non-ferrous metals totaling nearly 10 million tons [4][51]. - The integration of the copper smelting business has altered the revenue structure, reducing the share of trading business revenue from 80% in 2022 to 38% in 2023, while copper smelting now accounts for 41% of total revenue [18][19]. - The report emphasizes the company's strategic move into the copper industry, enhancing its growth potential and market competitiveness [4][51].