金属价格上涨将增厚矿山版块利润

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][20][63] Core Views - The company has experienced a significant decline in net profit by 43% year-on-year in 2023, with a revenue of 65.6 billion yuan, an increase of 18.5% [10][17] - The decline in profitability is primarily attributed to the drop in lead and zinc prices and a decrease in production [10][17] - The acquisition of the copper smelting plant has positively impacted revenue and profit, with the copper segment contributing significantly to the overall financial performance [7][14][49] - Future growth is expected from the copper and zinc price increases, with projections indicating a recovery in net profit from 2024 onwards [18][61] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 65.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 6.9 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.3% decrease [10][17] - The operating cash flow increased by 45.3% to 1.57 billion yuan [10] - The average domestic zinc price in 2023 was 21,635 yuan/ton, showing a year-on-year decline of 14.2% [10][17] - The company’s net profit is projected to recover to 7.83 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.8% [63] Segment Analysis - The copper smelting business has become a crucial part of the company's revenue structure, contributing 41% to total revenue in 2023 [14][49] - The company’s lead and zinc production decreased to 170,400 tons in 2023, a decline of 6.2% year-on-year [10][17] - The acquisition of the copper smelting plant has resulted in a significant increase in copper production, with 403,000 tons produced in 2023 [7][14][23] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from rising copper, lead, and zinc prices, with projections for zinc prices set at 23,000 yuan/ton and copper prices at 75,000 yuan/ton for 2024-2026 [63] - The commencement of the Maimon mine is anticipated to add 30,000 tons of copper and zinc annually, becoming a key growth driver [18][61]