24Q1业绩承压，“低空+物流”赛道拓展前景可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company, with a target price of 41.01 CNY per share based on a 85x PE valuation for 2024 [3][10]. Core Views - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q1 2024, with revenue at 0.61 billion CNY (YoY -87.14%) and a net profit of -0.27 billion CNY (YoY -141.86%). The decrease is attributed to a reduction in product deliveries compared to the previous year [1][6]. - The company has officially launched its Zigong drone base, which is expected to enhance its production capacity and shorten delivery times by over 30%. This facility aims to produce 200 drones annually [1][6]. - The report highlights the potential for growth in the "low-altitude + logistics" sector, driven by the successful flight tests of the Wing Loong-2 drone for cargo logistics [1][10]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 30.53 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 14.6%. The company expects revenues to continue growing to 35.99 billion CNY in 2025 and 42.47 billion CNY in 2026, with respective growth rates of 17.9% and 18.0% [2][8]. - The company's net profit is forecasted to be 3.26 billion CNY in 2024, increasing to 3.86 billion CNY in 2025 and 4.64 billion CNY in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 7.6%, 18.4%, and 20.2% respectively [2][8]. - The report anticipates an overall gross margin of 20.9% for 2024 and 2025, improving to 21.9% in 2026 [2][8]. Business Segmentation - The drone systems and related products segment is expected to generate revenues of 29.4 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 15.0%. This segment's gross margin is projected to be 20.0% [8][9]. - The drone technology services segment is anticipated to see revenues of 1.1 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 5.0% and a gross margin of 45.0% [8][9]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company holds a leading market share in the global reconnaissance drone sector, benefiting from its competitive advantages in performance, practical experience, and market positioning [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the potential for the company to capitalize on the modernization of defense equipment during the 14th and 15th Five-Year Plans, as well as the growth of the military trade market [6][10].