LI AUTO(02015) 天风证券·2024-05-13 02:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 155 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a decline in sales and profits during the off-season, leading to a significant expectation gap. However, the market share is anticipated to continue increasing due to the launch of the new model L6, which is expected to drive sales growth [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2024 is projected to show a sales revenue of 23.4 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, with total revenue expected to reach 24.3 billion HKD, a 30% increase year-on-year. The gross margin is forecasted to be around 20.3%, down from 23.5% in the previous quarter [1][2]. Summary by Sections Sales and New Vehicle Situation - The company is expected to deliver 80,400 vehicles in Q1 2024, representing a 53% year-on-year increase. The delivery volume in April was 25,800 units, a slight increase of 0.4% year-on-year. The slowdown in sales growth is attributed to seasonal demand rather than a decline in competitive strength [1][2]. Profitability - The gross margin is expected to decline to approximately 20% due to seasonal sales and discounts on older models. The adjusted net profit for Q1 2024 is projected to be 1.5 billion HKD, a 7% year-on-year increase, with the adjusted profit per vehicle expected to drop to around 19,000 HKD [1][2]. Price Adjustments and Gross Margin Expectations - The company announced a new pricing system on April 22, 2024, with price reductions for existing models. The expected revenue per vehicle is projected to decrease to between 285,000 and 290,000 HKD, while the cost per vehicle is estimated to be around 230,000 HKD, maintaining an annual gross margin of 19-20% [1][2]. Smart Technology Development - The company is increasing its investment in smart technology, aiming to expand its R&D team from approximately 900 to over 2,500 by 2025. This is expected to enhance its competitive position against leading players in the smart driving sector [2]. Market Outlook - Despite recent volatility, the report suggests that the market may be overly pessimistic regarding the company's annual sales and profits. The anticipated sales for the year are projected to be between 600,000 and 650,000 vehicles, with expectations for the L6 model to contribute significantly to sales growth [2].