Gemdale(600383) 长江证券·2024-05-13 03:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" and is maintained [4] Core Views - The company's revenue and profitability have both declined, with a significant drop in revenue of 51.5% year-on-year to 6.96 billion yuan in Q1 2024, primarily due to a decrease in settlement resources [5][6] - The company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of 280 million yuan in Q1 2024, compared to a profit of 510 million yuan in the same period last year, with a comprehensive gross margin of 14.9%, down 2.6 percentage points [5][6] - The company is adopting a cautious operational approach in response to declining market demand and industry-wide credit tightening, with a focus on sales collection and leveraging quality assets for cash flow [7] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In Q1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 6.96 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.5% year-on-year, mainly due to reduced settlement resources [5][6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 280 million yuan, with a gross margin of 14.9%, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous year [5][6] Sales and Investment - The company's sales amounted to 16.73 billion yuan in Q1 2024, down 62.1%, with a sales area of 984,000 square meters, a decrease of 59.5% [6] - The average sales price was 17,000 yuan per square meter, down 6.4% [6] - The company ranked 14th in sales within the industry, down from 10th in 2023, indicating a contraction in market position [6] Debt and Financial Health - As of the end of 2023, the company had total interest-bearing liabilities of 91.91 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2% [6] - The company maintains a debt reduction strategy, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 68.7% and a net debt ratio of 53.2% [6] - The average cost of debt financing was 4.36%, down 0.17 percentage points [6] Future Outlook - The company is expected to face continued pressure on settlement income, with projected net profits for 2024-2026 of 960 million, 1.02 billion, and 1.05 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.4%, 5.7%, and 3.2% [7]