2023年年报暨2024年一季报点评：市场回暖促业绩增长，休闲游潜力可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tianmu Lake (603136 SH) with a target PE of 18X 14X 12X for 2024-2026 [22][26][28] Core Views - Tianmu Lake achieved revenue of 630 million yuan in 2023 up 70 9% YoY and net profit of 147 million yuan up 623 9% YoY [22][24] - In Q1 2024 revenue declined 11 3% YoY to 107 million yuan and net profit dropped 42 8% YoY to 11 million yuan [5][22] - The company's net profit margin reached 26 7% in 2023 up 21 0 percentage points YoY but still 1 4 percentage points below 2019 levels [5] - The report expects the company to grow into a national leisure tourism leader with local state-owned enterprise support [22] Business Performance - In 2023 the company achieved record-high quarterly revenues of 163 million 192 million and 155 million yuan in Q2 Q3 and Q4 respectively [5] - The company's operating expense ratio was 20 13% in 2023 down 6 6 percentage points compared to 2019 demonstrating strong cost control [5] - The company's main business segments in 2023 showed mixed performance with scenic area revenue up 108 0% YoY while water park revenue declined 9 5% YoY [25] Industry and Company Outlook - The domestic tourism market is recovering with a shift from sightseeing to higher-value leisure tourism expected to continue in 2024 [6] - Tianmu Lake is well-positioned in the Yangtze River Delta region to benefit from the recovery of leisure tourism demand [6] - The company's "Animal Kingdom" and "Nanshan Village Phase II" projects were selected as key cultural and tourism projects in Jiangsu Province in 2023 [6] Financial Projections - The report forecasts net profits of 200 million 245 million and 283 million yuan for 2024-2026 respectively [22][26] - Revenue is expected to grow to 737 million 808 million and 918 million yuan in 2024-2026 [33] - The company's net profit margin is projected to increase from 23 3% in 2023 to 30 8% in 2026 [33]