IMDTECL(SZ:002128) Tianfeng Securities·2024-05-13 06:30Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 27.94 CNY per share based on a valuation of 626.19 billion CNY for 2024 [6]. Core Insights - The company operates under a "coal-electricity-aluminum" integrated business model, which has shown stable profitability and is accelerating its green energy transition [1][3]. - The company is a leading producer of lignite coal in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions, benefiting from a tight coal supply-demand balance, which supports its pricing power [2][25]. - The company has significantly expanded its renewable energy capacity, with a target to exceed 10 million kW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The electrolytic aluminum segment benefits from self-supplied electricity, leading to lower costs and industry-leading profitability [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Integrated Business Model - The company, originally known as Open-pit Coal Industry, has evolved into a platform for coal, electricity, and aluminum operations, with significant revenue contributions from each segment [1][14]. 2. Coal Business - The company holds mining rights for two open-pit coal mines with an approved production capacity of 48 million tons per year, maintaining a near 100% capacity utilization rate [2][25]. - The coal segment achieved a gross margin of 55.38% in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.93 percentage points [29]. 3. Electricity Generation - The company operates a total installed capacity of 1.2 million kW in thermal power, fully self-supplying its coal needs, which enhances its cost advantages [2][35]. - The electricity segment's gross margin improved to 41.15% in the first half of 2023, up from 33.39% in the same period of 2022 [38][41]. 4. Renewable Energy Expansion - As of the end of 2023, the company had a renewable energy generation capacity of 4.552 million kW, representing a year-on-year growth of 109.8% [3][20]. - The company plans to continue rapid growth in renewable energy installations, targeting over 10 million kW by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3][27]. 5. Electrolytic Aluminum - The company has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 860,000 tons, with high utilization rates and cost advantages due to its self-supplied power [4][20]. - The electrolytic aluminum segment is expected to contribute stable cash flow due to its competitive cost structure [4][22]. 6. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 281.70 billion CNY, 316.40 billion CNY, and 351.77 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 50.39 billion CNY, 53.46 billion CNY, and 58.84 billion CNY [5][6].