玻璃龙头，盈利上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, Fuyao Glass [1] Core Views - The photovoltaic glass market is experiencing a temporary supply-demand tightness, leading to a price increase. The effective capacity for 2024 is expected to be around 105,000 tons/day, with a supply-demand ratio of 118%, significantly improving from 2023 [1][21] - The overall industry cost is declining, giving leading companies like Fuyao a competitive edge due to their cost control measures and scale advantages [1][2] - Fuyao has established deep ties with downstream customers, solidifying its leading position in the market through early entry and geographical advantages [1][2] Summary by Sections Company Introduction - Fuyao Glass Group Co., Ltd. has been focused on photovoltaic glass for 18 years and is one of the largest producers globally. The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with the chairman holding a significant portion of shares [1][8][11] - The company has shown robust revenue growth, with a CAGR of 35.0% from 2019 to 2023, and a net profit CAGR of 30.9% during the same period [1][15] Market Performance - The glass segment is seeing a profitability turning point, with leading companies benefiting from significant cost advantages. Fuyao's revenue is projected to reach 250.3 billion, 317.1 billion, and 360.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 38.2 billion, 49.8 billion, and 58.2 billion yuan [2][3] Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s financial projections indicate a steady increase in revenue and net profit, with expected revenues of 25,031 million yuan in 2024, growing to 36,010 million yuan by 2026. The net profit is expected to rise from 3,816 million yuan in 2024 to 5,821 million yuan in 2026 [3][2] - The report highlights a decrease in the company's P/E ratio from 29.0 in 2022 to 10.6 in 2026, indicating an attractive valuation [3][2] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic glass market is expected to see a supply-demand balance in the second and third quarters of 2024, with inventory turnover days likely to decrease, supporting price increases [1][21] - The report notes that the industry is facing challenges such as heavy asset investments and policy restrictions, which may limit effective supply [24][27]