NHD(SZ:002946) Great Wall Securities·2024-05-13 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [11][36]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 10.99 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.80%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 431 million yuan, up 19.27% year-on-year [6][11]. - The company is focusing on its "Fresh Cube" strategy, emphasizing core categories, DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) channels, and enhancing management efficiency to drive internal growth and maintain product and brand vitality [11][23]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company's gross margin was 26.87%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year, driven by sales scale growth and cost reduction efforts [7]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 3.98% in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.37 percentage points [7]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.64 yuan, 0.78 yuan, and 0.94 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [11][33]. Revenue and Growth Analysis - The liquid milk and dairy products segment generated revenue of 9.83 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 11.16% [21]. - The company plans to focus on low-temperature fresh milk and specialty yogurt, with a strategic goal of achieving sustainable revenue growth and improved net profit margins [23]. Cash Flow and Investment - The operating cash flow for 2023 was 1.557 billion yuan, indicating a strong cash generation capability [13]. - The company is expected to continue investing in capital expenditures, with projected capital spending of 776 million yuan in 2023 [13]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its strong innovation capabilities to maintain product and brand vitality, with a focus on enhancing its DTC channel and optimizing product structure [11][23]. - The report highlights the company's strategic execution in 2024 as a critical year for driving high-quality growth through its "Fresh Cube" strategy [22][23].