Zhujiang Brewery(SZ:002461) Changjiang Securities·2024-05-14 03:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhujiang Beer [8][12]. Core Views - Zhujiang Beer reported a total revenue of 1.108 billion yuan in Q1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.05%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 121 million yuan, up 39.37%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 104 million yuan, an increase of 45.79% [6][8]. - The growth in high-end products is significant, with beer sales volume reaching 263,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.77%. High-end product sales grew by 15.05%, leading to a 6.2% increase in the average price per ton to 4,201 yuan per thousand liters [6][8]. - The company is experiencing a structural upgrade, with a focus on pure draft products and high-end offerings such as raw beer and English-style IPA, which are expected to drive future growth [6][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, Zhujiang Beer achieved a gross margin of 42.13%, an increase of 1.35 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved product mix and reduced cost pressures [6][8]. - The company’s operating expenses remained stable, with a slight increase in the expense ratio by 0.47 percentage points. The net profit margin improved by 2.53 percentage points to 10.91% [6][8]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates continued positive trends for Zhujiang Beer in 2024, with expected earnings per share (EPS) of 0.34, 0.39, and 0.44 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 25, 22, and 19 [6][8]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of the Australian barley market, which is expected to improve cost structures and enhance profitability [6][8].