NHD(SZ:002946) Changjiang Securities·2024-05-14 03:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [11]. Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 10.987 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 431 million yuan, up 19.27% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items reached 465 million yuan, a significant increase of 57.86% year-on-year [6][9]. - In Q4 2023, the company reported a total revenue of 2.793 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.56%, with a net profit of 49.947 million yuan, down 2.09% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 73.634 million yuan, up 56.56% year-on-year [6][9]. - For Q1 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 2.614 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.66%, with a net profit of 89.748 million yuan, up 46.93% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 100 million yuan, up 33.75% year-on-year [6][9]. Revenue and Growth - The liquid milk and dairy product manufacturing segment generated 9.834 billion yuan in revenue for 2023, an increase of 11.16% year-on-year, with volume growth of 9.3% and price growth of 1.7%. The liquid milk segment alone accounted for 9.755 billion yuan, also up 11.15% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company’s high-end fresh milk products, represented by "Vipshop," continue to drive growth, with a structural optimization trend ongoing. In 2023, the revenue from high-end products grew nearly 40% year-on-year [10]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company's net profit margin improved by 0.31 percentage points to 3.92% in 2023, with a gross margin increase of 2.84 percentage points to 26.87%. However, the expense ratio also increased by 1.26 percentage points to 21.46% [7]. - In Q4 2023, the net profit margin decreased by 0.23 percentage points to 1.79%, while the gross margin increased by 3.52 percentage points to 25.25%, and the expense ratio rose by 3.9 percentage points to 22.47% [7]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain a relatively fast revenue growth in 2024, with projected net profits of 562 million yuan and 711 million yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 17 and 13 times [10].