ZBD(603567) 国盛证券·2024-05-14 10:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance is expected to grow steadily due to its diversified product matrix and the volume expansion from centralized procurement [2] - The company's industrial revenue increased by 84.79% YoY in 2023, with the industrial segment's gross margin rising by 3.14 percentage points to 64.37% [2] - The company's traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and chemical drug segments performed well, with TCM revenue increasing by 84.06% YoY and chemical drug revenue increasing by 51.41% YoY in 2023 [2] - The company's commercial and medicinal material sales revenue decreased by 64.6% YoY in 2023, with a slight increase in gross margin by 0.17 percentage points to 3.51% [2] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 was 473 million yuan, a 155% increase YoY, while the non-GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company was a loss of 31.84 million yuan [2] - The company's Q1 2024 revenue was 1.118 billion yuan, a 27.10% decrease YoY, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 15.43% YoY to 293 million yuan [2] Product Portfolio and Market Strategy - The company has 160 production approvals and 129 product varieties, including 82 medical insurance varieties, 31 essential drug varieties, and 3 TCM protected varieties [3] - The company has 4 exclusive varieties, including Fufang Qinlan Oral Liquid and Xueshuantong Capsule, which are expected to drive future growth [3] - The company's Xueshuantong Capsule was selected in the "3+N" centralized procurement in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with expected sales growth in 2024 [3] - The company has strategically focused on TCM trade, establishing 16 regional offices and 4 planting bases, enhancing its competitive advantage [3] Financial Projections - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 818 million yuan in 2024, 1.041 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.312 billion yuan in 2026, with YoY growth rates of 73%, 27%, and 26%, respectively [3] - The company's EPS is expected to be 0.87 yuan in 2024, 1.11 yuan in 2025, and 1.39 yuan in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14X, 11X, and 9X [3] Financial Performance - The company's revenue in 2023 was 3.144 billion yuan, a 25.5% decrease YoY, while the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 154.9% YoY to 473 million yuan [4] - The company's gross margin improved significantly to 42.4% in 2023, compared to 17.7% in 2022 [7] - The company's ROE increased to 5.8% in 2023 from 2.7% in 2022, with further improvement expected to 12.2% by 2026 [7]