Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Zhongyuan Securities·2024-05-14 13:00Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of 5% to 15% compared to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [15]. Core Views - The company faced performance pressure in 2023, with total revenue of 110.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%, and a net loss of 4.26 billion yuan, transitioning from profit to loss [5][6]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.57%, but a net loss of 2.38 billion yuan, which is an increase in loss compared to the previous year [5]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in breeding costs and an increase in slaughter capacity utilization, with the average cost of market pigs decreasing to approximately 15 yuan/kg in 2023 [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company sold 63.82 million pigs, with a total revenue of 110.86 billion yuan and a net loss of 4.26 billion yuan [5][6]. - The average cost of market pigs was around 15 yuan/kg, down by 0.7 yuan/kg from 2022 [6]. - For 2024, the company aims to sell between 66 million to 72 million pigs, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.42% to 12.82% [6]. Market Conditions - As of Q1 2024, the national breeding sow inventory was 39.92 million heads, down 7.27% year-on-year, indicating a reduction in supply pressure and a gradual increase in pig prices [5][6]. - The average price of live pigs in April 2024 was 15.1 yuan/kg, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.4% [5]. Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 17.37 billion yuan, 19.27 billion yuan, and 9.80 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.18 yuan, 3.53 yuan, and 1.79 yuan [7][8]. - The company is expected to continue optimizing its cost structure and improving operational efficiency in the slaughtering segment, with a target utilization rate of 46% [6][7].