Guolian Minsheng Sec(SH:601456) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-05-14 23:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guolian Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [2][11]. Core Views - The report highlights the expected synergy effects from the acquisition of Minsheng Securities and emphasizes the importance of the transaction price [5]. - The share issuance price for the acquisition is set at 11.31 CNY per share, which is 8% higher than the current market price, indicating a positive outlook for the transaction [5]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for the years 2024 to 2026, estimating net profits of 800 million, 981 million, and 1.196 billion CNY respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.28, 0.34, and 0.42 CNY [5]. Financial Summary - The total market capitalization of Guolian Securities is 29.62 billion CNY, with a circulating market capitalization of 24.99 billion CNY [2]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.955 billion CNY in 2023, with a projected increase to 3.479 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.7% [7]. - The net profit for 2023 was 675 million CNY, with an expected increase to 800 million CNY in 2024, representing a growth of 18.6% [7]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 37.7 for 2024, decreasing to 25.2 by 2026, and a P/B ratio of 1.7 for 2024, decreasing to 1.5 by 2026 [7][8].