陶纤静待拐点，新业务持续布局

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company, with a target PE of 12x for 2024 and 9x for 2025 [2][10] Core Views - The company completed the acquisition of Yixing Gaoqi Environmental Protection in June 2023 and Unifrax (Shanghai) in November 2023, which are expected to provide new growth opportunities in industrial filtration and automotive sectors [2] - Ceramic fiber sales volume increased by 8.8% YoY to 465,700 tons in 2023, while wet-process ceramic fiber products grew by 9.7% to 47,400 tons [9] - The company's revenue in 2023 was 3.52 billion yuan, down 1.85% YoY, with net profit attributable to shareholders declining by 15.7% to 492 million yuan [8] - In Q1 2024, revenue was 700 million yuan, down 7.4% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 82 million yuan, down 4.6% YoY [8] Business Performance - The company's ceramic fiber production capacity increased by 80,000 tons in 2023, with the first phase of the Inner Mongolia project (40,000 tons) completed in March 2023 and the second phase (40,000 tons) in December 2023 [26] - The company's overall sales gross margin in 2023 was 31%, down 2 percentage points YoY, mainly due to downstream market constraints and product structure changes [9] - The company expects 2024-2025 net profit to be 630 million yuan and 850 million yuan, respectively [10] Industry Outlook - Ceramic fiber demand is expected to benefit from the ethylene cracker construction peak in 2024-2025, as well as increased penetration in integrated refining and maintenance needs [27] - The company's ceramic fiber products are widely used in industries such as petrochemicals, metallurgy, power, and building materials, with structural demand improvements observed in certain sectors [14] Financial Projections - The report forecasts 2024-2026 revenue to be 4.245 billion yuan, 5.09 billion yuan, and 5.991 billion yuan, respectively [16] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow to 627 million yuan in 2024, 850 million yuan in 2025, and 1.071 billion yuan in 2026 [16] - The company's EPS is expected to increase from 0.97 yuan in 2023 to 1.24 yuan in 2024, 1.68 yuan in 2025, and 2.12 yuan in 2026 [16]