重组方案落地，谱写公司发展新篇章

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guolian Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The restructuring plan has been implemented, marking a new chapter in the company's development. The company plans to acquire 100% of Minsheng Securities at a price of 11.31 CNY per share, which represents an 8% premium over the closing price on the announcement date. The acquisition will be financed through a private placement of shares, raising up to 2 billion CNY [1] - The integration of Minsheng Securities is expected to enhance the overall scale and business capabilities of Guolian Securities, with significant improvements anticipated in investment banking capabilities and regional market competitiveness [1] Summary by Sections Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue (in million CNY) is projected to be 2,834 in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.11%, followed by increases of 36.13% and 15.63% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders (in million CNY) is expected to be 403 in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 40.01%, with subsequent growth of 108.45% and 17.52% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to be 0.11 CNY in 2024, increasing to 0.24 CNY in 2025 and 0.28 CNY in 2026 [1] - The current market capitalization corresponds to PB valuations of 1.65, 1.45, and 1.41 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] Investment Highlights - The acquisition process is progressing smoothly, with expectations for both organic growth and external expansion to drive future performance [1] - The combined net assets of Guolian Securities and Minsheng Securities are projected to rank 20th in the industry post-acquisition, enhancing competitive positioning [1] - Minsheng Securities holds a strong market position in Henan, while Guolian Securities has significant market share in Wuxi and southern Jiangsu, suggesting complementary regional advantages [1]