GONGNIU(SH:603195) GF SECURITIES·2024-05-15 07:32Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [3]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leader in the consumer electrical industry, leveraging strong channels to empower its products. It has established a solid market share in the socket segment and has successfully entered the wall switch market, achieving a leading position within eight years. The company is actively pursuing three strategic growth areas: smart ecosystems, new energy, and internationalization [2][50]. - The smart lighting segment, particularly the "no main light" concept, has shown promising growth. The smart electrical lighting revenue surged from 4.05 billion yuan in 2020 to 7.90 billion yuan in 2023, with a CAGR of 24.9%. The dual-brand strategy of "Gongniu" and "Muguang" has been established, with significant channel development completed by the end of 2023 [2][56]. - The new energy vehicle market has driven the company's charging and storage business, which has seen a remarkable revenue growth of 148.64% in 2023. The company has developed a robust distribution network, with 17,000 C-end and approximately 1,500 B-end clients by the end of 2023 [2][56]. - The company has initiated international expansion, establishing subsidiaries in Germany and Indonesia, and is focusing on local product offerings in Southeast Asia while leveraging its new energy charging and storage products to penetrate the European and American markets [2][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Focus on Consumer Electrical and Lighting Fields - The company has consistently driven development through innovation, starting with sockets and expanding into wall switches, smart lighting, and new energy products, forming a sustainable industrial layout [50]. - Historical revenue growth has been steady, with a CAGR of 11.82% from 9.065 billion yuan in 2018 to 15.695 billion yuan in 2023, and net profit growing at a CAGR of 19.93% from 1.285 billion yuan to 3.189 billion yuan during the same period [52]. - The company anticipates continued growth in the "no main light" and new energy sectors, with international opportunities emerging [52][56]. 2. Smart Lighting - The smart lighting market has been rapidly growing, with the industry size increasing from 14.7 billion yuan in 2017 to 39.8 billion yuan in 2022, reflecting a CAGR of 22.04%. The household penetration rate for smart lighting is expected to continue rising [66][72]. - The "no main light" concept has gained popularity, with the market capacity exceeding 10 billion yuan by 2022 and a CAGR of over 50% from 2020 to 2022 [75][80]. 3. New Energy Business - The new energy vehicle market has seen significant growth, with sales reaching 9.495 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 37.9%. The company has capitalized on this trend by launching charging and storage products, achieving a revenue growth rate of 148.64% in 2023 [2][56]. - The company has developed a comprehensive distribution network for its new energy products, with a focus on both C-end and B-end clients [2][56]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.50 billion yuan, 5.21 billion yuan, and 5.97 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Based on comparable company valuations, a PE ratio of 26x for 2024 is suggested, leading to a target price of 131.26 yuan per share [2][56].