BABA(09988) 国信证券·2024-05-16 00:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba-SW (09988.HK) is "Buy" [1][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Alibaba is experiencing stable revenue growth, with significant investments in core e-commerce operations, which may pressure profits. The company anticipates a recovery in revenue growth driven by cloud services and e-commerce [20][25][37]. - The cloud computing segment is showing rapid growth in AI-related revenues, with a notable increase in adjusted EBITA margin from 1.6% to 5.6% [2][19][44]. - The company is adjusting its revenue forecasts for FY2025-FY2027, with expected revenues of 995.3 billion, 1,069.4 billion, and 1,147.1 billion CNY, reflecting slight downward adjustments [20][26][37]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 FY2024, Alibaba achieved a revenue of 2,219 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7%. The international digital commerce, local services, and Cainiao groups contributed significantly to this growth, while the Taobao group, cloud business, and entertainment segments showed moderate growth [25][29]. - The adjusted net profit for the quarter was 244 billion CNY, a decrease of 11% year-on-year, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 11% [25][53]. Business Segments - Taobao Group's revenue grew by 4% year-on-year to 932 billion CNY, with retail customer management revenue increasing by 5% and wholesale business up by 20% [18][25]. - The cloud business revenue increased by 3% year-on-year to 256 billion CNY, with AI-related revenue experiencing triple-digit growth [2][19]. Future Outlook - The company expects to complete its dual primary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange by the end of August 2024 [6][25]. - The report maintains a target price of 95-103 HKD for Alibaba, indicating a potential upside of 15%-25% from the current price [20][27][37].