奥瑞金：盈利改善，多维并举挖掘发展机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][12] Core Views - The company's revenue in 24Q1 reached 3.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 280 million, up 33% year-on-year [1] - The company's gross margin in 24Q1 was 18%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 7.8%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company plans to distribute cash dividends of 310 million yuan (including tax) for 2023, with a dividend payout ratio of 40% [2] - The company is steadily planning major asset acquisition projects, promoting deep-processed product business, and advancing international development strategies [3] - The company's three-piece can business maintains stable growth, with innovative products performing well, while the two-piece can business has seen improved profitability [9] - The company is actively promoting the acquisition of COFCO Packaging and has launched a series of self-owned brand products, including "Xiwang" sports nutrition drinks and "Le K" craft beer [10] - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 930 million, 1.07 billion, and 1.23 billion yuan in 2024-2026, with EPS of 0.36, 0.42, and 0.48 yuan per share, respectively [11] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company's revenue was 13.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2%, while net profit attributable to the parent company was 770 million, up 37% year-on-year [8] - The company's metal packaging product and service revenue in 2023 was 12 billion, with a gross margin of 16.83%, an increase of 4 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company sold 1.83 billion metal packaging cans in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 4%, while filling volume decreased by 19% to 540 million cans [10] - The company's total assets are expected to grow from 22.55 billion in 2024E to 26.97 billion in 2026E, with shareholder equity increasing from 9.57 billion to 11.25 billion during the same period [6] - The company's revenue is forecasted to grow from 16.15 billion in 2024E to 21.24 billion in 2026E, with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing from 930 million to 1.23 billion yuan [23] Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on enhancing its core competitiveness, optimizing product structure, and improving innovation capabilities [11] - The company is collaborating with COFCO Packaging and Haoneng (Hong Kong) to invest in metal packaging production projects in Central and Eastern Europe [10] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence and deepening cooperation with international clients [10] Valuation and Ratios - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 13X in 2024 to 10X in 2026, with a P/B ratio declining from 1.29X to 1.09X during the same period [23] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to be 8.07X in 2024E, decreasing to 6.83X by 2026E [23] - The company's net profit margin is expected to remain stable at around 5.76%-5.81% from 2024E to 2026E [17]