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海底捞:经营呈现逆势高景气度,期待运营端的积极变化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][23]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a high level of operational performance against industry trends, with significant growth in customer traffic and revenue, particularly in lower-tier markets [1][4]. - The company's revenue for 2023 reached 41.6 billion yuan, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.5 billion yuan, both marking new highs since its listing [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - From May 1 to May 4, the company received approximately 7.5 million customers, a year-on-year increase of about 15% [1]. - The company's table turnover rate has shown a remarkable recovery, with rates for the second half of 2023 reaching 120% to 200% compared to the same period in 2022 [2][4]. Organizational Changes - The company has implemented a new compensation structure for management, shifting from a "high base salary + low commission" model to a "low base salary + high commission" model, which has motivated store managers to improve operational efficiency [7][11]. - The average number of employees per store has been optimized, reducing costs and improving profitability, with the break-even point for table turnover decreasing from 3.0 to approximately 2.5 times [11][12]. Supply Chain Efficiency - The company benefits from a robust supply chain, which includes subsidiaries focused on logistics, seasoning, and human resources, enhancing cost control and quality management [12][14]. Future Outlook - The market remains cautious about the company's ability to further increase table turnover rates and expand its store network in 2024, but there are positive indicators for continued growth [3][16]. - The company has resumed store expansion, opening 9 new standard stores and 26 existing stores in 2023, and is exploring new store formats and a franchise model [20][23]. New Brand Development - The company launched a new sub-brand, "Hi Lao Hotpot," aimed at the budget segment, and is also venturing into the barbecue market with a new brand in Xi'an [20][22]. Financial Projections - The projected net profit for 2024-2026 is 5.17 billion, 5.74 billion, and 6.33 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 15%, 11%, and 10% [23][27].