M&G(603899) 华创证券·2024-05-16 23:32Investment Rating - Strong Buy (Maintained) with a target price of 47.2 CNY, compared to the current price of 39.56 CNY [1] Core Views - Traditional business shows steady growth, with online channels performing exceptionally well [1] - Retail stores have turned profitable, with significant revenue growth in 2023 and 2024 Q1 [1] - Kelipu's revenue growth slowed slightly in 2024 Q1 but remains on a positive long-term trajectory [1] - The company maintains stable profitability with effective cost control [1] Financial Performance 2023 Annual Performance - Revenue: 23.35 billion CNY, YoY +16.8% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.53 billion CNY, YoY +19.1% [1] - Core traditional business revenue: 9.14 billion CNY, YoY +7.5% [1] - Retail stores revenue: 1.34 billion CNY, YoY +51.0% [1] - Kelipu revenue: 13.31 billion CNY, YoY +21% [1] 2024 Q1 Performance - Revenue: 5.49 billion CNY, YoY +12.4% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 380 million CNY, YoY +13.9% [1] - Core traditional business revenue: 2.31 billion CNY, YoY +13.1% [1] - Retail stores revenue: 370 million CNY, YoY +23.5% [1] - Kelipu revenue: 2.95 billion CNY, YoY +11.6% [1] Business Segments Traditional Business - Writing instruments revenue: 2.27 billion CNY, YoY +4.8% in 2023 [1] - Student stationery revenue: 3.47 billion CNY, YoY +8.6% in 2023 [1] - Office supplies revenue: 3.51 billion CNY, YoY +8.9% in 2023 [1] Retail Stores - Nine Wood杂物社 revenue: 1.24 billion CNY, YoY +52.6% in 2023 [1] - Number of retail stores: 659 by the end of 2023, increasing to 678 by the end of 2024 Q1 [1] Kelipu - Revenue growth slowed to 11.6% YoY in 2024 Q1, compared to 21% YoY in 2023 [1] Profitability and Cost Control - Gross margin: 18.9% in 2023, slightly down by 0.5 percentage points YoY [1] - Net profit margin: 6.5% in 2023, up by 0.1 percentage points YoY [1] - Sales/management/financial expense ratios: 6.6%/3.5%/-0.2% in 2023, showing effective cost control [1] Future Projections - Expected revenue for 2024-2026: 27.45/31.53/35.85 billion CNY [2] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026: 1.80/2.16/2.52 billion CNY [2] - PE ratio for 2024-2026: 20/17/14X [2] Valuation - Current market capitalization: 36.66 billion CNY [4] - 12-month high/low price: 46.08/30.64 CNY [4]