MEITUAN(03690) 广发证券·2024-05-17 01:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan-W with a target price of HKD 176.05 per share [69][102] Core Views - Community group buying industry growth has slowed due to external economic environment changes and internal strategic shifts among players [4] - Meituan Youxuan and Duoduo Maicai have shifted focus from expansion to cost reduction and efficiency improvement since H2 2023 [108] - Meituan Youxuan's losses are expected to narrow significantly in 2024, with estimated losses of RMB 10-12 billion, down from RMB 18.9 billion in 2023 [136] Industry Analysis - The community group buying industry has entered a phase of slower growth and rational competition [4] - Downstream markets still hold significant consumption potential, with retail scale reaching RMB 17.6 trillion in 2022, growing at 9% YoY [122] - Community group buying helps improve rural retail infrastructure and addresses consumer pain points in downstream markets [116] Company Analysis Meituan Youxuan - Meituan Youxuan's development can be divided into three stages: rapid expansion (2020-2021), first optimization (2021Q3-2022Q4), and second optimization (2023Q1-2023Q4) [5] - The company has invested heavily in supply chain, warehousing, and logistics infrastructure [13] - Meituan Youxuan's GMV remained flat in 2023 at around RMB 140 billion, while Duoduo Maicai reached RMB 190 billion [108] Duoduo Maicai - Duoduo Maicai entered the market 3 months later than Meituan Youxuan but leveraged Pinduoduo's traffic and supply chain advantages [7] - Duoduo Maicai surpassed Meituan Youxuan in market share in Q2 2022, achieving 45% market share [24] - The company has implemented a decentralized management model, dividing operations into 78 business units [15] Financial Projections - Meituan's total revenue is projected to reach RMB 331.7 billion in 2024 and RMB 388.6 billion in 2025 [102] - Adjusted net profit is expected to be RMB 34.8 billion in 2024 and RMB 53.2 billion in 2025 [102] - The core local commerce segment is valued at RMB 516 billion, while the new business segment (excluding community group buying) is valued at RMB 111.2 billion [31] Strategic Focus - Meituan Youxuan is focusing on improving operational efficiency through measures such as closing inefficient warehouses and optimizing logistics [27] - The company is shifting from price subsidies to improving product quality and user experience [80] - Duoduo Maicai is prioritizing profitability over market share growth, with most regions achieving positive gross margins [24]