中国中免：好风凭借力：中免的底牌是什么？

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Hold" rating for China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) with a first-time coverage [6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the long-term positive outlook for the duty-free industry driven by national policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and the recovery of high-quality consumer demand [2]. - It highlights the strong competitive position of China Duty Free as a leading player in the retail sector, benefiting from significant scale advantages and a robust market presence [3]. - The report also notes short-term profitability improvements due to reduced airport rental costs and enhanced inventory turnover rates [4]. Summary by Sections Long-term Perspective - The duty-free market is expected to grow significantly, with a target of attracting 300 billion yuan in duty-free shopping back to China, particularly in Hainan [2]. - The overall economic trend in China remains positive, with increasing demand for high-quality consumer goods [2]. Mid-term Perspective - China Duty Free has established itself as the largest travel retail operator globally, with a market share exceeding 85% in domestic duty-free sales since 2018 [3]. - The company operates approximately 200 duty-free stores across more than 100 cities, leveraging its strong brand and extensive distribution network [3]. Short-term Perspective - The company has signed rental agreements with major airports, significantly reducing base rental fees and commission rates, which is expected to enhance profitability as international travel recovers [4]. - The report argues that the opening of duty-free licenses will ultimately benefit leading companies like China Duty Free by accelerating the exit of smaller competitors [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 675 billion yuan in 2023 to 1,030 billion yuan by 2026, with corresponding net profits increasing from 67 billion yuan to 109 billion yuan during the same period [5]. - The report provides a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio forecast of 23x for 2024, 19x for 2025, and 17x for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4].