Zelgen(688266) 兴业证券·2024-05-17 10:02Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Overweight" rating for the company, citing potential growth from core product commercialization and pipeline expansion [2][43] Core Views - The company's revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of RMB 722 million, RMB 1.34 billion, and RMB 2.122 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][43] - EPS is forecasted to be -RMB 0.66, RMB 0.23, and RMB 1.59 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2][43] - The company's product pipeline is entering a harvest phase, with significant progress in autoimmune indications and differentiated product layouts based on antibody platforms [27] Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved revenue of RMB 386 million, a YoY increase of 27.83%, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB 279 million [9][26] - Q4 2023 revenue was RMB 104 million, a slight YoY decrease of 0.07%, but a QoQ increase of 67.80% [9] - Q1 2024 revenue was RMB 108 million, a YoY increase of 0.12% and a QoQ increase of 3.75% [26][29] - Gross margin for 2023 was 92.44%, with a significant reduction in R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue to 128.44% [30] Product Pipeline and Commercialization - Donafenib (Zepsun) generated sales revenue of RMB 384 million in 2023, a YoY increase of 27.14%, with sales volume reaching 207,400 boxes, up 19.61% YoY [4][7][13] - Recombinant human thrombin received NMPA approval in December 2023 and entered a commercialization partnership with Yuanda Life Sciences (Liaoning) [4][13] - Jackitinib, targeting myelofibrosis and autoimmune diseases, has multiple Phase III trials underway, with NDA submitted for myelofibrosis [14][27] - ZG006, a trispecific antibody targeting CD3 and DLL3, shows promising preclinical results and is positioned as a potential first-in-class and best-in-class molecule [17][34] - ZG005 (PD-1/TIGIT) and ZGGS15 (LAG-3/TIGIT) are advancing in clinical trials, with ZGGS15 being the first anti-LAG-3/TIGIT bispecific antibody to enter clinical trials [36][37] Market Expansion and Coverage - Donafenib has entered 979 hospitals, covering 1,696 hospitals and 844 pharmacies as of December 2023 [4][13] - The company is expanding its presence in oncology, bleeding disorders, hepatobiliary diseases, and autoimmune diseases through a diversified pipeline [14][27] Key Financial Metrics - Cash and cash equivalents increased to RMB 2.078 billion by the end of 2023, up 182.34% YoY [11] - Total assets stood at RMB 3.105 billion, with net assets of RMB 1.594 billion as of 2023 [1] - The company's ROE is projected to improve significantly, reaching 21.7% by 2026 [25]