ITG(SH:600755) Tianfeng Securities·2024-05-17 10:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiamen International Trade (600755) with a target dividend yield of 6.4% if a 50% dividend payout is achieved in 2024 [9][12]. Core Views - The economic recovery and rising commodity prices are expected to drive profitability upward for the company [2][8]. - Despite an 8% decline in revenue from core supply chain categories in 2023, the company has seen a slight increase in market share, reaching 1.2% [3][4]. - The report highlights that the company's revenue and profit growth are closely tied to fluctuations in commodity prices, with a positive correlation observed since 2016 [8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the total revenue was 468,246.88 million, reflecting a 10.28% decrease from 2022 [11]. - The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is revised down to 23.0 billion, with projections for 2025 and 2026 at 28.3 billion and 32.1 billion respectively [9][10]. - The company's EBITDA for 2023 is projected at 6,197.94 million, with a slight recovery expected in subsequent years [11]. Market Position - The company has maintained a stable sales volume, with significant growth in steel (over 35 million tons, up over 20%) and coal (over 45 million tons, up over 30%) [3][4]. - The report indicates that the company ranks third among A-share listed companies in terms of market share in the commodity supply chain sector [3]. Commodity Price Trends - The CRB Commodity Index has shown a moderate recovery, increasing by 6% from January to May 2024, which is expected to positively impact the company's performance [8]. - The report suggests that if the inventory cycle in China and the U.S. rebounds in 2024, commodity prices may continue to rise, further benefiting the supply chain sector [8].