龙源电力：A+H两地上市新能源平台，静待绿电机制理顺

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Longyuan Power with an "Outperform" rating [1] Core Views - Longyuan Power is a pioneer in China's new energy development and is dual-listed on A+H markets [3] - The company has a total installed capacity of 35,590 MW as of December 2023, with wind power accounting for 27,750 MW, solar for 5,960 MW, and thermal power for 1,875 MW [3] - The company plans to add 30,000 MW of new energy capacity during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, excluding assets to be injected by the parent company [3] - The parent company, China Energy Group, has committed to injecting 21,406.7 MW of wind power assets into Longyuan Power, which will increase its installed capacity by approximately 60% [14] - The company's profitability has been stable, with net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 6.249 billion yuan in 2023, a 22.27% YoY increase [14] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profit attributable to shareholders (excluding perpetual bond interest) for 2024-2026 to be 6.730 billion, 7.439 billion, and 8.089 billion yuan, respectively [6] - The current H-share price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8x, 7x, and 6x for 2024-2026 [6] - The company is expected to add 2,000 MW of wind power and 3,000 MW of solar power annually from 2024 to 2026 [7] Industry Analysis - The new energy sector faces challenges such as subsidy delays, grid absorption pressure, and spot market electricity price risks [7] - However, the long-term growth potential of the sector remains intact, driven by China's dual-carbon strategy [7] - The industry is expected to transition from scale expansion to high-quality development, with leading companies like Longyuan Power benefiting from this shift [20] Key Investment Highlights - Longyuan Power is a benchmark company in the green power sector, with its stock performance closely tied to the industry's development [7] - The company's early-stage projects have a higher proportion of "certified" projects, which are less likely to face subsidy recovery issues [17] - The company's receivable recovery situation is better than its peers, with significant improvement in 2022 [16] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The company's A-share valuation has remained stable, with a PB ratio consistently above 2x [15] - The H-share valuation is at a historical low, with a PB ratio of only 0.65x [15] - Compared to peers like China Three Gorges Renewables, Jiaze New Energy, and Datang New Energy, Longyuan Power is considered a leading company in the green power sector [25]