HTGD(SH:600487) ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2024-05-19 01:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a market price of 15.18 [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 47.62 billion yuan for 2023, a year-on-year increase of 2.49%, and a net profit of 2.15 billion yuan, up 35.77% year-on-year. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 11.79 billion yuan, growing 8.45% year-on-year, with a net profit of 513 million yuan, an increase of 29.87% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the optical cable industry, focusing on communication and energy interconnection sectors. The outlook for optical fiber and cable demand remains positive, while the offshore wind and cable market is expected to recover [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue Forecasts: - 2022A: 46.46 billion yuan - 2023A: 47.62 billion yuan - 2024E: 55.38 billion yuan - 2025E: 61.77 billion yuan - 2026E: 67.67 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 13% (2022), 2% (2023), 16% (2024), 12% (2025), 10% (2026) [1]. - Net Profit Forecasts: - 2022A: 1.58 billion yuan - 2023A: 2.15 billion yuan - 2024E: 2.81 billion yuan - 2025E: 3.36 billion yuan - 2026E: 3.96 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 10% (2022), 36% (2023), 30% (2024), 20% (2025), 18% (2026) [1]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 0.64 yuan - 2023A: 0.87 yuan - 2024E: 1.14 yuan - 2025E: 1.36 yuan - 2026E: 1.61 yuan [1]. - Valuation Ratios: - P/E ratios: 23.6 (2022), 17.4 (2023), 13.3 (2024), 11.1 (2025), 9.4 (2026) - P/B ratios: 1.6 (2022), 1.5 (2023), 1.3 (2024), 1.2 (2025), 1.1 (2026) - PEG ratios: 2.3 (2022), 0.5 (2023), 0.4 (2024), 0.6 (2025), 0.5 (2026) [1]. Business Segment Performance - The optical communication segment generated revenue of 7.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.52% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 29.36%, up 9.27 percentage points. The smart grid business achieved revenue of 19.34 billion yuan, a 10% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 13.57%, up 0.41 percentage points [2]. - The marine energy and communication segment reported revenue of 3.38 billion yuan, down 24.57% year-on-year, while the industrial and new energy smart business saw revenue of 5.73 billion yuan, up 14.41% year-on-year [2]. Market Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing development of cloud computing and AI applications, which will enhance communication network capabilities. The introduction of 800G optical modules is anticipated to further boost market demand [2]. - The offshore wind cable market is projected to improve, with significant orders in hand, totaling approximately 18.5 billion yuan by the end of 2023 [2][3].