AGSW(SH:600199) Haitong Securities·2024-05-19 02:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [18] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of 1.469 billion yuan in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.9%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -22 million yuan, an improvement from -187 million yuan in the previous year [7][10] - In Q4 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 396 million yuan, up 6.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 13 million yuan, compared to a loss of 51 million yuan in the same period last year [7] - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 419 million yuan, down 3.0% year-on-year, with a net profit of 18 million yuan, improving from a loss of 41 million yuan in the same quarter of the previous year [7] - The company’s liquor revenue increased by 43.5% in 2023, driven by a volume increase of 79.6%, despite a price decrease of 20.1%. The low-end liquor segment saw a revenue increase of 81.5% [7] - The gross margin improved significantly, reaching 40.3% in 2023 and 44.5% in Q1 2024, benefiting from strong performance in products priced below 100 yuan [7][10] - The company plans to optimize its channel structure and enhance its distribution network, with a focus on expanding its presence in key markets [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach 1.813 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 23.4%, and further increase to 2.998 billion yuan by 2026 [10] - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, reaching 69 million yuan, and grow to 292 million yuan by 2026 [10] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve to 42.3% in 2024 and 48.4% by 2026 [10] - The company’s debt-to-asset ratio is projected to increase from 27.2% in 2023 to 33.7% in 2026, indicating a gradual increase in leverage [10]