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锡业股份:2023年报及2024一季报点评:锡价触底反弹+产量增加助力业绩释放,24Q1业绩同比大幅改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 22.97 CNY per share [5][16]. Core Views - The company's revenue for 2023 was 42.359 billion CNY, a decrease of 18.5% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.408 billion CNY, an increase of 4.6% year-on-year. The first quarter of 2024 showed a significant improvement in performance, with a net profit of 326 million CNY, up 22.1% year-on-year [2][3]. - The rebound in tin prices and increased production contributed to the company's performance recovery. In 2023, the company produced 80,000 tons of tin ingots, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, and the average tin price was 212,300 CNY per ton, down 14.9% year-on-year [2][3]. - For the first quarter of 2024, the company reported a tin ingot production of 22,400 tons, a 7.7% increase quarter-on-quarter, and the average tin price was 217,000 CNY per ton, up 3.9% year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company plans to produce a total of 348,600 tons of non-ferrous metals in 2024, with specific targets of 85,000 tons of refined tin, 130,000 tons of copper, 131,600 tons of zinc products, and 77.8 tons of indium [3]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is 2.1 billion CNY, with an expected EPS of 1.28 CNY, reflecting a significant growth rate of 49.1% compared to 2023 [4][10]. - The company's gross profit for 2023 was 3.88 billion CNY, with a gross margin of 9.2%, and it is expected to improve to 10.2% in 2024 [4][10].