LEAPMOTOR(HK:09863) Guohai Securities·2024-05-19 15:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a significant year-on-year revenue increase of 141.7% in Q1 2024, achieving a revenue of 3.486 billion RMB, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of 1.013 billion RMB, which is an improvement compared to the loss of 1.133 billion RMB in Q1 2023 [3] - The company's gross margin in Q1 2024 was -1.4%, showing a notable year-on-year improvement but a decline from 6.73% in Q4 2023, primarily due to promotional activities to clear old inventory and a decrease in sales volume leading to higher marginal production costs [3] - The company is expected to see a recovery in sales as new models are gradually delivered, with the overall sales volume in Q1 2024 being 33,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 217.9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 39.6% [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 34.86 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 141.7% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 33.9; the net profit attributable to shareholders was -10.13 billion RMB, showing a narrowing loss compared to -11.33 billion RMB in Q1 2023 [3] - The company’s R&D, sales, and administrative expense ratios were 14.92%, 12.27%, and 4.00% respectively, showing significant year-on-year improvements [3] Sales and Market Expansion - The company has accelerated its international expansion, forming a joint venture with Stellantis to enter the European market, with plans to launch models in nine countries and expand to 200 sales outlets by the end of the year [5][6] - The company plans to introduce at least one new model each year from 2025 to 2027, leveraging Stellantis's overseas distribution channels to enhance its market presence [6] Earnings Forecast - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 34.785 billion, 56.917 billion, and 82.811 billion RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 108%, 64%, and 45% [7] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -3.191 billion RMB in 2024, turning positive in 2025 with a profit of 0.038 billion RMB, and reaching 2.003 billion RMB in 2026 [7]