Kunlun(300418) 华金证券·2024-05-19 16:30Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight-A" rating to Kunlun Tech (300418 SZ) [1] Core Views - Kunlun Tech is strategically positioned across the entire AI industry chain, with a diversified business matrix that includes AI models, AI search, AI music, AI video, AI social, and AI gaming [1] - The company's revenue in 2023 reached RMB 4,915 million, a YoY increase of 3.78%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1,258 million, up 9.15% YoY [1] - In Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 1,208 million, a slight decline of 0.8% YoY, and a net loss of RMB -187 million due to temporary losses in investment business [1] - The company has launched multiple AI applications, including the "Tiangong" series of large models, AI music models, and AI gaming platforms, which are expected to drive future growth [1] AI Business Development - Kunlun Tech has developed a comprehensive AI business matrix, including AI models, AI search, AI music, AI video, AI social, and AI gaming [1] - The "Tiangong" large model series has been iterated to version 3.0, featuring a MoE (Mixture of Experts) architecture with 100 billion parameters, making it one of the most powerful MoE models globally [1] - The company launched the "Tiangong AI Assistant," the first MoE-based AI assistant in China, offering enhanced search, research, and creative capabilities [1] - In AI music, the company released the "Tiangong SkyMusic" model, which integrates instrument, vocal, melody, and volume generation using a Sora-like architecture [1] - In AI gaming, the company developed "Club Koala," a game that allows users to create game levels and party games without coding experience [1] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 5,513 million in 2024 to RMB 6,668 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 10.1% [4][6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be RMB 626 million in 2024, RMB 648 million in 2025, and RMB 766 million in 2026 [4][6] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 78% from 2024 to 2026 [4][6] - EPS is projected to be RMB 0.52 in 2024, RMB 0.53 in 2025, and RMB 0.63 in 2026 [4][6] Overseas Business and Opera Platform - Overseas business accounts for 86% of the company's revenue, with a YoY increase of 8.4 percentage points [1] - Opera, the company's AI-driven information distribution and metaverse platform, has over 300 million monthly active users globally [1] - Opera's revenue in 2023 reached USD 397 million, a YoY increase of 20%, with adjusted EBITDA of USD 93.7 million, up 38% YoY [1] - Opera One, the flagship browser, integrates the AI assistant "Aria," which supports over 50 languages and is available in 180 countries [1][3] Strategic Partnerships and R&D Investment - Kunlun Tech has formed strategic partnerships with Alibaba Cloud and Huawei Cloud to enhance AI computing and model training capabilities [1] - The company increased its R&D investment to 20.34% of revenue in 2023, up from 12.94% in 2021, with a 19.12% increase in R&D personnel [1] - The company has completed a full industry chain layout, including investments in AI computing chips and infrastructure [1] Valuation and Peer Comparison - Kunlun Tech's P/E ratio is projected to be 71.9x in 2024, 69.6x in 2025, and 58.8x in 2026, higher than peers due to its early-stage AI business expansion [4][8] - Comparable companies include Kingnet Network, Yaoji Technology, and BlueFocus, with average P/E ratios of 23.4x, 18.0x, and 15.1x for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [8]