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零跑汽车:主流市场极致性价比玩家,Stellantis入股加速海外成长
09863LEAPMOTOR(09863) 中泰证券·2024-05-20 00:32

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as the first rating issued [2]. Core Insights - The company focuses on a cost-performance strategy, targeting the mainstream electric vehicle market priced between 100,000 to 300,000 yuan, with a strong emphasis on both pure electric and range-extended vehicles [10][11]. - The partnership with Stellantis is expected to accelerate overseas growth, enhancing the company's market presence and profitability [12][14]. - The company has a robust product lineup, with plans to introduce 2-3 new models annually over the next three years, ensuring comprehensive coverage across various price segments [14][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is positioned as a value-for-money player in the electric vehicle market, focusing on the 100,000 to 300,000 yuan price range [10]. - It has transitioned from pure electric vehicles to include range-extended models, with a strategic partnership with Stellantis initiated in 2023 to enhance growth [11][12]. - The company has established a solid foundation for self-research and development, with a significant portion of its components produced in-house [12][17]. Overall Recognition - The company benefits from vertical integration and a high degree of commonality in vehicle architecture, leading to significant cost advantages [15][20]. - The founder's technical background and collaboration with Dahua Technology provide a strong technological foundation for the company's self-research capabilities [15][17]. Growth Logic - Domestic Demand - The company targets a market with low electric vehicle penetration, particularly in the 100,000 to 200,000 yuan segment, where there is substantial potential for growth [26]. - The range-extended vehicles are positioned to alleviate consumer concerns about electric vehicle range anxiety, providing a competitive edge [29][30]. - The company plans to expand its dealership network significantly, with an expected increase of 200 stores in 2024, enhancing its market reach [13][32]. Growth Logic - Export - The partnership with Stellantis is expected to facilitate entry into international markets, leveraging Stellantis's established distribution channels [12][19]. - The company anticipates significant export potential, with projections indicating a long-term export volume of 10 million units [19][20]. - The higher profit margins associated with exporting vehicles compared to domestic sales present a lucrative opportunity for the company [19][20]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts indicate substantial growth, with expected revenues of 32.54 billion yuan in 2024 and 64.61 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 94.3% and 98.6% respectively [2][3]. - The company is projected to achieve profitability by 2025, with net profits expected to reach 2.09 billion yuan [2][3].