YKA(SZ:300999) Guoxin Securities·2024-05-20 01:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][22] Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in kitchen food sales, with a year-on-year increase of 3.30% in net profit for Q1 2024. Despite a decline in revenue for 2023, the company is expected to benefit from improving economic conditions and a recovery in demand for its products [6][22][24]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2023 revenue was 251,524 million yuan, down 2.32% year-on-year, with a net profit of 28,480 million yuan, down 5.43% [3][7]. - For Q1 2024, revenue was 57,274 million yuan, down 6.17% year-on-year, but net profit increased by 3.30% to 8,820 million yuan [6][7]. - Kitchen Food Business: - In 2023, total sales volume reached 23,220,000 tons, up 8% year-on-year, but revenue fell to 147,600 million yuan, down 6% due to declining product prices [4][12]. - Q1 2024 saw a recovery in retail product margins, leading to increased revenue and profit [4][12]. - Feed Raw Materials and Oil Technology Business: - In 2023, total sales volume was 26,870,000 tons, up 14%, with revenue of 102,200 million yuan, up 4% [4][13]. - However, Q1 2024 performance was under pressure due to weak demand in the downstream breeding industry [13]. Profitability Metrics - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS for 2024 is projected at 0.65 yuan, with a forecasted net profit of 3,542 million yuan [3][23]. - Profit Margins: - The EBIT margin is expected to improve from 0.6% in 2023 to 2.5% in 2024 [3][23]. - The company's overall gross margin improved to 5.13% in Q1 2024, up from 4.83% in 2023 [16][20]. Valuation Metrics - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - The P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 59.8 in 2023 to 48.1 in 2024 [3][23]. - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - The P/B ratio is expected to remain stable around 1.9 in 2023 and 2024 [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned as a leader in the kitchen food sector, with diversified development prospects. The investment recommendation remains "Buy," with revised profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 [22][24].