通威股份:电池减值轻装上阵,周期底部价值凸显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tongwei Co., Ltd. is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - Tongwei Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 139.1 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 2.33%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.57 billion yuan, down 47.25% year-on-year. In Q4 2023, the revenue was 27.68 billion yuan, a decline of 31.37% year-on-year and 25.89% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 2.73 billion yuan primarily due to impairment impacts. For Q1 2024, the revenue was 19.57 billion yuan, down 41.13% year-on-year, with a net loss of 787 million yuan [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a sales volume of 387,200 tons in the silicon material business, an increase of 50.79%, with a global market share exceeding 25%. Despite a significant price drop, the company maintained a net profit of over 45,000 yuan per ton [5]. - The solar cell business continued to lead globally with a sales volume of 80.66 GW, up 68.11% year-on-year. The module business achieved a sales volume of 31.11 GW, a remarkable increase of 292.08% [5]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.05 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), totaling 4.074 billion yuan, which accounts for 30.02% of the 2023 net profit [5]. Future Outlook - For 2024, the company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.5 billion yuan. The silicon material business is projected to reach a total shipment of 550,000 tons, with production costs expected to decrease further [6]. - The company plans to gradually complete the transformation of approximately 38 GW of PERC capacity in 2024 and expand TOPCon battery capacity to over 100 GW, with expected shipments around 90 GW [6]. - The module business is anticipated to exceed 50 GW in shipments for 2024, supporting the company's integrated expansion strategy [6].