Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for SANY International with a target price of HKD 7.90, reflecting a potential upside of 13.0% from the current price of HKD 6.99 [2][14]. Core Insights - SANY International's Q1 2024 net profit decreased by 21% year-on-year, which was worse than expected, primarily due to losses in oil and gas equipment and emerging industries. However, there are signs of improvement expected in the second half of 2024 driven by strong overseas demand for large mining trucks and logistics equipment, as well as potential acceleration in port equipment orders due to government policies [1][2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2024 revenue fell by 6% year-on-year to RMB 5.13 billion, with mining equipment revenue down 26% to RMB 2.8 billion, while logistics equipment revenue increased by 23% to RMB 1.8 billion [1][4]. - The adjusted net profit for FY 2024 is projected to be RMB 2.034 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [2][10]. - Revenue for FY 2024 is estimated at RMB 25.874 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [2][10]. Market Outlook - The report highlights that domestic logistics equipment is benefiting from equipment upgrade policies, with SANY expressing confidence in strong orders starting from the second half of 2024 [1][2]. - Overseas growth remains promising, particularly for wide-body trucks, with a target of delivering 1,800 units in 2024, translating to approximately RMB 2.6 billion in sales [1][2]. - Despite a decline in the solar energy sector, SANY aims to deliver 3-4 GW of solar modules this year, although losses are still anticipated due to ongoing price declines in the solar supply chain [1][2][5]. Revenue Projections - Revenue projections for various segments in FY 2024 include: - Road headers: RMB 2.495 billion - Combined coal mining units (CCMU): RMB 3.983 billion - Small port machinery: RMB 5.952 billion - Large port machinery: RMB 1.620 billion - Mining trucks: RMB 4.768 billion [5][10]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates a projected net profit margin of 10.1% for Q1 2024, down from 12.0% in Q1 2023, reflecting the impact of increased costs and lower sales [4][10]. - The overall gross profit margin for FY 2024 is expected to be around 25.6% [5][10].
三一国际：预计在 2016 年第一季度疲软后 ， 趋势会有所改善