证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 23 日 湘财证券研究所 公司研究 三一国际（0631.HK）深度报告 能源装备布局完善，未来成长可期 相关研究： 1.《20250702湘财证券-机械行业 2025年中期策略-周期与成长共振》 2.《20250713湘财证券-机械行业： 看好锂电专用设备和工程机械》 公司评级：买入（首次覆盖） 近十二个月公司表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 10.6 32.2 35.4 绝对收益 17.4 48.8 77.9 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 24/07 24/09 24/11 25/01 25/03 25/05 25/07 三一国际 恒生指数 注：相对收益与恒生指数相比 分析师：轩鹏程 证书编号：S0500521070003 Tel：(8621) 50295321 Email：xuanpc@xcsc.com 地址：上海市浦东新区银城路 88 号 中国人寿金融中心 10 楼 核心要点： ❑ 三一国际：国内能源装备行业龙头 三一重装国际控股有限公司成立于 2009 年，同年在香港上市。据公司 公告。2011 年公司收购三一重机非公 ...

中信建投指出，雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程7月19日宣布开工，总投资1.2万亿元，预计将拉动大量工程机 械新需求。6月挖机国内销量同比+6%，出口销量同比+19%，内外销数据均超预期，尤其外销大吨位增 长较强，7月上半旬挖机内销依旧实现同比增长，国内市场维持温和复苏趋势。另外，7月上游零部件公 司排产饱满，内、外资客户需求均有恢复。 工程机械相关产业链港股： 智通财经APP获悉，7月19日，李强宣布雅鲁藏布江下游水电项目开工，工程建设正式拉开帷幕；同 时，国务院国资委宣布中国雅江集团有限公司正式成立，成为国务院国资委监管的第99家央企。 雅江下游水电项目位于西藏自治区林芝市，工程主要采取截弯取直、隧洞引水的开发方式，建设5座梯 级电站，总投资约1.2万亿元（三峡工程静态投资1353亿元，为雅江项目九分之一），总装机容量规划 预计达60GW（三峡水电站22.5GW），预计年发电量3000亿千瓦时（约为三峡三倍）。 根据东吴证券研究测算，该项目土方量超5亿立方，工程机械需求涵盖大型挖掘机、装载机、矿卡、混 凝土机械、路面机械等，有望大幅拉动国内工程机械需求。 雅江项目位处西藏林芝市，平均海拔3000米以上，高寒环境下柴 ...

Group 1 - In the first half of 2025, infrastructure investment across the country showed a "blossoming" trend, providing continuous momentum for economic development, with an average construction machinery operating rate of 44.81% [1] - The operating rate in the second quarter was 47.1%, an increase of 4.62% compared to the first quarter, with 15 provinces exceeding an average operating rate of 50% [1] - Six provinces, including Anhui, Fujian, Henan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, and Chongqing, maintained a comprehensive operating rate above 50% for six consecutive months, indicating strong performance particularly in East and South China [1] Group 2 - In the first half of 2025, the average operating rate of lifting equipment was 66.87%, ranking first among various types of equipment [1] - In June 2025, sales of various aerial work vehicles reached 539 units, a year-on-year increase of 153%, with domestic sales of 509 units up by 147% and exports of 30 units up by 329% [1] - From January to June 2025, a total of 2,445 aerial work vehicles were sold, representing a year-on-year growth of 27.9%, with domestic sales of 2,312 units increasing by 25% and exports of 133 units rising by 115% [1] Group 3 - In June 2025, sales of various forklifts reached 137,570 units, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%, with domestic sales of 83,892 units up by 27.3% and exports of 53,678 units up by 17.2% [2] - From January to June 2025, a total of 739,334 forklifts were sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.7%, with domestic sales of 476,382 units increasing by 9.79% and exports of 262,952 units rising by 15.2% [2] - Major engineering machinery companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, and Liugong have continued to see steady growth in overseas markets, with overseas sales accounting for nearly or exceeding 50% [2]

Summary of 3E Heavy Industry Update Exchange Meeting Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: 3E Heavy Industry - **Industry**: Heavy Industry, specifically focusing on mining equipment and machinery Key Points and Arguments Business Performance and Forecast - The company has three main business segments: Bajiji, Qizhongji, and Huningtu, with expectations for the second quarter to remain stable at a growth rate of 10-15% domestically and around 15% overseas [1][2][3] - The domestic market is experiencing a recovery, particularly in infrastructure and wind turbine installations, with growth rates expected to improve from 2.5% in Q1 to over 20% in May [2][3] - The overall market share for large and medium-sized diggers in China is stable, with a slight increase in large diggers' market share and a decrease in small diggers' share [3][4] Competition and Market Dynamics - The competition in the Wajiji industry is not perceived as intense, with the company focusing on maintaining healthy industry development rather than engaging in price wars [4][5] - The company has a strong market share in China, estimated at 31-32%, and a global market share of around 8%, with large-scale enterprises exceeding 10% [5][6] Product Development and Innovation - The company is investing in R&D, with a focus on large-scale mining equipment, and has recently launched a 400-ton product [6][7] - There is a significant emphasis on post-market services and management capabilities, which are crucial for maintaining customer relationships and operational efficiency [7][8] Regional Market Insights - The U.S. market is showing improvement, with expectations for a 20% increase in income and a balance of profits, despite uncertainties regarding tariffs [10][11] - The European market is expected to grow, although Russia is facing significant challenges, with a decline of over 20% anticipated [11][19] - Southeast Asia and Africa are highlighted as strong markets, with Indonesia and India contributing significantly to overseas income [18][19] Future Outlook - The company maintains its annual forecast of 15-20% growth, with expectations for better performance in the third quarter [14][23] - The overall industry growth is projected to be stable, with a focus on large-scale mining equipment updates and a gradual recovery in coal prices expected next year [17][22] Challenges and Strategic Adjustments - The company acknowledges challenges in the domestic market, particularly in the post-market sector, where growth is slower compared to overseas markets [26][27] - There is a strategic focus on smart devices and automation, with plans for enhanced management software and smart applications in mining operations [28] Additional Important Insights - The company has a healthy inventory management system, with a focus on reducing management costs while increasing sales costs due to channel investments [24][26] - The profitability of dealers remains stable, with a significant percentage of them being profitable despite market fluctuations [27] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the 3E Heavy Industry Update Exchange Meeting, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, and strategic direction.

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zheshang Securities highlights the promising prospects of unmanned vehicles (Robo-X) across various applications, particularly in closed and specialized scenarios such as warehousing, mining, and military use, driven by technological advancements and supportive policies [1][3]. Group 1: Unmanned Vehicle Applications - Unmanned vehicles (Robo-X) have significant potential in multiple scenarios, including passenger transport (Robotaxi), material handling (unmanned forklifts), sanitation (Robosweeper), mining (unmanned mining trucks), military (unmanned combat platforms), and agriculture (unmanned tractors) [2][3]. - The commercial viability of unmanned logistics vehicles (Robovan) is paving the way for broader applications of unmanned vehicles in various sectors [2]. Group 2: Industry Outlook - The essence of unmanned vehicles (Robo-X) lies in the application of autonomous driving technology in specific scenarios, with advancements in algorithms, LiDAR, and domain control chips facilitating faster commercialization [3]. - Three key conditions for the rapid deployment of unmanned vehicles are identified: successful technology implementation, policy support, and sound commercial logic [3]. Group 3: Unmanned Forklift Market Potential - The global market for automated warehousing solutions is projected to exceed 2 trillion RMB, with unmanned forklifts playing a crucial role in enhancing warehouse efficiency and reducing costs [4]. - Traditional warehousing faces challenges such as low space utilization (with rental and operational costs accounting for 8%-12% of total costs) and inefficient labor practices, which unmanned forklifts can address by creating intelligent warehousing systems [4]. - The global market for automated warehousing solutions is expected to grow from approximately 471.1 billion RMB in 2024 to 804 billion RMB by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12% from 2020 to 2024 and 11.3% from 2024 to 2029 [4]. Group 4: AMR Solutions Growth - The global market for Autonomous Mobile Robot (AMR) solutions is anticipated to reach approximately 38.7 billion RMB in 2024, with a CAGR of 30.6% from 2020 to 2024, and is projected to grow to 162.1 billion RMB by 2029, with a CAGR of 33.1% from 2024 to 2029 [5]. - The penetration rate of AMR solutions in the overall automated warehousing sector is expected to increase from 4.4% in 2020 to 20.2% by 2029 [5]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include Hangcha Group (leading domestic forklift manufacturer), Zhongli Group (global electric forklift leader), Anhui Heli (state-owned forklift leader), SANY Heavy Industry (leading Chinese construction machinery company), XCMG (emerging global construction machinery leader), Shantui (bulldozer manufacturer), Taotao Vehicle (North American leisure vehicle leader), YTO Group (large tractor leader), Beifang Group (Chinese mining vehicle leader), and Inner Mongolia First Machinery Group (military equipment leader) [6]. - Companies to watch include Zhongyou Technology and Noli Shares [7].

Group 1 - Wanjing Technology has launched a campus recruitment plan for 2026 graduates, offering a starting annual salary of up to 1 million yuan [1][4] - The internship program for 2026 graduates has been upgraded, with daily wages reaching 1,000 yuan and opportunities for full-time positions for outstanding interns [1][4] - The company operates in over 200 countries and regions, with a global user base exceeding 1.5 billion, positioning itself as a major player in the digital creative software sector [4] Group 2 - SANY Group has initiated its early recruitment for 2026 graduates, targeting various engineering and management roles across multiple locations in China [5][7] - SANY Group is recognized as a leading high-end equipment manufacturing enterprise, with core businesses in engineering machinery and renewable energy [7][8] - The company has established a significant global presence, with manufacturing bases in countries such as India, the USA, Germany, Brazil, and Indonesia [8] Group 3 - China Mobile's subsidiary, Zhongyi Internet, has launched its summer internship program for 2025, targeting 2026 graduates in various AI and software development roles [9] - Zhongyi Internet focuses on information and internet services, actively participating in national projects and collaborating with academic institutions [9]

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the EPS forecast for SANY International (00631) at 0.70 HKD for 2025 and introduces a new EPS forecast of 0.81 HKD for 2026, raising the target price by 25% to 7.10 HKD, indicating a 21% upside potential based on improved profitability in new industries [1] Financial Performance - The company reported Q1 2025 financial data with revenue of 5.876 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, gross profit of 1.428 billion HKD, up 11.8%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 635 million HKD, reflecting a 23.2% year-on-year growth, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] Mining Equipment - Domestic demand remains resilient, with strong demand for tunneling machines and wide-body trucks, despite weak coal prices. The company is expected to see good growth in overseas wide-body trucks and large mining trucks, supported by product upgrades and reduced overall user costs, indicating significant long-term growth potential [3] Logistics Equipment - Global demand for port equipment is recovering, with a full order book for large port machines and improving order profitability. The company has successfully expanded its small port machine exports in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, and has introduced new products like telescopic forklifts in the European and American markets, produced in India to mitigate tariff issues. The trend towards electrification of small port machines is viewed positively [4] Oil and Gas Equipment - In 2024, revenue and profitability are expected to decline due to cost-cutting measures from major clients. However, a marginal recovery in industry demand is anticipated in 2025, with the company focusing on internal management improvements to regain market share [5] New Industries - In 2024, the company is enhancing management reforms in new industries to improve efficiency and reduce costs. A significant narrowing of operational losses in new industries is expected in 2025, along with better utilization and return rates of existing assets [6]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.2% at 23,289.77 points, with a total turnover of HKD 271.56 billion. The Hang Seng Tech Index fell 2.48% to 5,170.43 points. For the month, the Hang Seng Index rose 5.29% [1] - Current valuations of the Hang Seng Index are considered moderately low, while the Hang Seng Tech Index is at historical lows, indicating high investment value in the Hong Kong stock market [1] Blue Chip Performance - CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (01093) led blue-chip stocks, rising 6.3% to HKD 8.1, contributing 6.53 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company is in discussions for three potential licensing collaborations, with total payments potentially reaching USD 5 billion [2][4] - Other notable blue-chip movements include Li Auto-W (02015) up 3.79%, CK Infrastructure Holdings (01038) up 2.11%, while BYD Electronic (00285) and Tingyi (00322) saw declines of 6.03% and 5.01% respectively [2] Sector Movements - Large tech stocks generally declined, with Alibaba down 3.56% and Tencent down 2.41%. Apple-related stocks also faced significant drops, with Cowell e Holdings (01478) down 6.61% [3][5] - The automotive sector continued its downward trend, with Xpeng Motors-W (09868) down 5.04% and Great Wall Motors (02333) down 3.03%. Price competition in the automotive industry is expected to intensify [6] Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw gains, with China Antibody-B (03681) up 21.31% and other biotech stocks also performing well. The upcoming ASCO conference is expected to boost interest in innovative drugs [3][4] Notable Stock Movements - Dekang Agriculture (02419) reached a new high, rising 14.15% due to leading industry cost advantages [7] - Sany International (00631) reported a revenue increase of 14.6% year-on-year, with a net profit increase of 23.2% [8] - New World Development (00017) saw a 3.9% increase, with contract sales reaching HKD 24.8 billion, exceeding 95% of its annual target [9] - Li Auto-W (02015) reported a revenue of RMB 25.93 billion for Q1 2025, a 1.1% year-on-year increase [10] - Hand Return Group (02621) experienced a significant drop of 18.19% on its first trading day [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "BUY" rating for SANY International, indicating a potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months [19]. Core Insights - SANY International's net profit for 1Q25 increased by 23% year-on-year to RMB635 million, marking the first quarterly profit growth since 3Q23. This growth was attributed to strong performance in large port machinery, oil & gas equipment, overseas mining trucks, and other emerging businesses [1][8]. - The report expresses optimism regarding SANY International's sustainable overseas growth and gradual stabilization in the domestic coal mining equipment sector. The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with a target price set at HK$8.20, reflecting an attractive valuation of 8x 2025E P/E amid earnings recovery [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB20,278 million in FY23A to RMB25,110 million in FY25E, representing a year-on-year growth of 14.6% [2]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from RMB1,929 million in FY23A to RMB2,159 million in FY25E, with a year-on-year growth of 16.7% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from RMB0.61 in FY23A to RMB0.67 in FY25E [2]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 8.0x in FY25E, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical averages [2]. Share Performance - The current market capitalization of SANY International is approximately HK$18,801.3 million, with a current share price of HK$5.85, suggesting a potential upside of 40.2% to the target price [3]. - Over the past three months, the stock has experienced a 26.9% increase in absolute terms [5]. Shareholding Structure - Sany Heavy Equipment holds a significant 66.4% stake in SANY International, indicating strong insider confidence in the company's future [4].

Individual Company News - Li Auto (02015.HK) reported a total revenue of 25.9 billion yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. Adjusted net profit was 1 billion yuan, down 20.5% year-on-year [1] - Sihuan Pharmaceutical (01093.HK) is in discussions with potential partners regarding licensing and collaboration in drug development, production, and commercialization [1] - SANY International (00631.HK) achieved a net profit of 636 million yuan in Q1, a year-on-year increase of 30.6%, driven by significant revenue growth in large port machinery, oil and gas equipment, silicon energy products, and overseas mining vehicle sales [1] - Minxin Group (00222.HK) has jointly established a partnership to invest in a national-level specialized and innovative technology enterprise [1] - China Orient Group (00581.HK) reported an operating profit of approximately 199 million yuan for Q1 after deducting financial costs [1] Pharmaceutical Sector News - Jiahe Biotech (06998.HK) received approval from the Chinese National Medical Products Administration for the market launch of the new drug GB491 [2] - Fosun Pharma (02196.HK) had its registration application for the drug Luwomeitini approved by the National Medical Products Administration [2] - Yum China (09987.HK) entered into a share repurchase agreement for a total buyback amount of approximately 510 million USD for the second half of the year [2]