KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 长江证券·2024-05-20 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an estimated EPS of 70.51/83.07 yuan for 2024/2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 24/21 times [2] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve its 2024 targets smoothly, with ample regulatory measures and high channel profits historically, and no competitors in the ultra-high-end price segment, indicating significant long-term growth potential [2] - The company's 2024Q1 operating income reached 464.85 billion yuan (+18.04%), with net profit attributable to the parent company at 240.65 billion yuan (+15.73%) [14] - The profit growth rate was slightly slower than the revenue growth rate, mainly due to tax disturbances, with the net profit margin dropping by 1.04pct to 51.77% in 2024Q1 [15] Financial Performance - The company's 2024Q1 gross margin increased by 0.01pct to 92.73%, while the operating expense ratio decreased by 0.12pct to 5.9% [15] - The company's 2024Q1 operating income + contract liabilities amounted to 418.82 billion yuan (+29.92%), indicating strong revenue growth potential [35] - The company's 2024Q1 direct sales reached 193.19 billion yuan (+8.49%), while wholesale sales were 263.24 billion yuan (+25.78%), with the wholesale channel benefiting from price increases [35] Product Performance - In 2024Q1, Moutai liquor sales reached 397.07 billion yuan (+17.75%), while series liquor sales were 59.36 billion yuan (+18.39%), with series liquor growing slightly faster than Moutai liquor [35] Market Position - The company's channel profits remain at historically high levels, and there are no competitors in the ultra-high-end price segment, providing a strong foundation for long-term growth [2]