东航物流：综合物流快速增长，景气上行弹性可期报告要点

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In Q1 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 5.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 590 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6% [6][12]. - The decline in air express revenue is offset by rapid growth in comprehensive logistics solutions, driven by the expansion into cross-border e-commerce clients [6][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing strong demand in cross-border e-commerce, with limited supply growth of wide-body freighters, leading to potential upward pressure on freight rates [6][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue from air express, ground comprehensive services, and comprehensive logistics solutions were 2.00 billion, 0.59 billion, and 2.63 billion yuan respectively, showing a year-on-year change of -17.1%, +6.8%, and +63.9% [6]. - The gross profit for air express, ground comprehensive services, and comprehensive logistics solutions were 310 million, 230 million, and 280 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -57.1%, +37.2%, and +2.8% [6]. Market Outlook - The demand for cross-border air transport is expected to remain strong in 2024, with potential upward movement in freight rates due to geopolitical factors and better-than-expected increases in long-term contract prices [6][12]. - The company is advancing projects at Pudong Airport, which are expected to contribute to incremental growth in ground comprehensive services [6][12]. Profit Forecast - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are 3.24 billion, 3.77 billion, and 4.33 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 9.0, 7.7, and 6.7 times [6][12].