QIANHE(603027) 长江证券·2024-05-20 08:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its strong positioning in the health-focused seasoning market and robust growth potential [2][6] Core Views - The company is deeply aligned with the health-oriented positioning of its brand, benefiting from the broader trend of health-conscious upgrades in the seasoning industry [2] - The company's segment is experiencing higher growth compared to the overall industry, supported by effective incentives and strong team execution [2] - National market penetration remains a significant growth opportunity, with potential for increased market share and industry position [2] - Revenue and profit are expected to continue growing rapidly in 2024, with projected net profits of 703 million yuan and 868 million yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively [2] - The company's EPS for 2024 and 2025 is estimated at 0.68 yuan and 0.84 yuan, with PE ratios of 24x and 19x, respectively [2] Financial Performance - The company achieved a total operating income of 3.207 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 31.62% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders in 2023 was 530 million yuan, up 54.22% year-on-year [6] - In Q4 2023, operating income was 875 million yuan, a slight decline of 0.82% year-on-year, while net profit was 143 million yuan, down 8.47% [6] - Q1 2024 saw operating income of 895 million yuan, up 9.28% year-on-year, with net profit of 155 million yuan, an increase of 6.66% [6] Segment Performance - In 2023, soy sauce revenue was 2.04 billion yuan, up 34.85% year-on-year, while Q1 2024 saw a 9.13% increase [22] - Vinegar revenue in 2023 was 422 million yuan, up 11.75% year-on-year, but declined by 6.22% in Q1 2024 [22] - Other seasoning products revenue in 2023 was 703 million yuan, up 39.04% year-on-year, with an 18.78% increase in Q1 2024 [22] Sales Channels - Distribution channel revenue in 2023 was 2.344 billion yuan, up 44.75% year-on-year, with a 10.40% increase in Q1 2024 [22] - Direct sales revenue in 2023 was 822 million yuan, up 5.70% year-on-year, with a 3.70% increase in Q1 2024 [22] - Online sales in 2023 were 631 million yuan, remaining flat compared to the previous year [22] Financial Projections - Operating income is projected to grow from 3.892 billion yuan in 2024 to 5.664 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - Net profit is expected to increase from 703 million yuan in 2024 to 1.058 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.68 yuan in 2024 to 1.03 yuan in 2026 [4] - PE ratios are estimated at 23.63x for 2024 and 15.70x for 2026 [4] Profitability and Efficiency - Gross margin in 2023 was 37.15%, up 0.59 percentage points year-on-year [27] - Net profit margin in 2023 improved by 2.42 percentage points to 16.54% [27] - Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 0.95 percentage points in 2023 [27] - Total asset turnover rate is projected to remain stable at around 0.83 to 0.84 from 2024 to 2026 [4] Market Expansion - The number of distributors reached 3,356 by the end of Q1 2024, a 38% year-on-year increase [22] - New distribution channels have driven core revenue growth, with a 3.3% sequential increase in distributor numbers [22]