CSCEC(SH:601668) Changjiang Securities·2024-05-20 08:32Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 549.32 billion yuan in the first quarter, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.92 billion yuan, up 1.20% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 14.74 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.1% year-on-year [5][6]. Revenue and Profit Growth - The company's revenue showed steady growth, driven by improved project management and operational efficiency. The first quarter revenue reached 549.32 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.67%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 14.92 billion yuan, marking a 1.20% increase year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 14.74 billion yuan, up 1.1% year-on-year [5][6]. Order Growth - In terms of orders, the company saw a rapid increase in overseas orders. The new signed orders in the construction sector amounted to 1,110.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%. Specifically, new signed orders for residential buildings were 806.2 billion yuan, up 11.4% year-on-year, while infrastructure orders reached 300.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 23.2% increase year-on-year. Domestic new signed orders totaled 1,088.3 billion yuan, up 13.9% year-on-year, and overseas new signed orders were 22.4 billion yuan, increasing by 38.4% year-on-year [5][6]. Financial Metrics - The company's comprehensive gross profit margin for the first quarter was 8.09%, slightly down by 0.01 percentage points year-on-year. The expense ratio increased to 3.76%, up 0.10 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin attributable to shareholders was 2.72%, down 0.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin after deducting non-recurring items was 2.68%, also down 0.09 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. Cash Flow Management - The company experienced a significant increase in cash outflow in the first quarter, with operating cash flow net outflow reaching 96.60 billion yuan, an increase of 31.17 billion yuan year-on-year. The cash collection ratio was 100.68%, down 1.48 percentage points year-on-year. The company's asset-liability ratio increased by 0.28 percentage points year-on-year to 74.76%, and the accounts receivable turnover days increased by 6.75 days to 42.66 days [5][6]. Future Outlook - With ongoing state-owned enterprise reforms and a reduction in impairment losses, the company's performance and valuation are expected to improve. The company has a strong position in the real estate market, with over 90% of new land reserves located in first- and second-tier cities. It is projected that the company will achieve a net profit of 58.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a corresponding dividend yield of approximately 5% based on a 20% payout ratio. The expected net profits for 2024-2026 are 58.53 billion, 63.09 billion, and 66.96 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 3.81, 3.54, and 3.33 times [6].