Zijin Mining(601899) 光大证券·2024-05-20 11:32Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4]. Core Views - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% in copper and gold production from 2023 to 2028, with specific targets of 1.5-1.6 million tons for copper and 100-110 tons for gold by 2028 [3][4]. - The company has a strong track record of meeting production targets, with an average completion rate of 104% for copper and 96% for gold since 2014 [3]. - The report anticipates continued upward pressure on copper and gold prices due to supply-demand imbalances and historical trends related to interest rate changes [3][4]. Summary by Sections Production Planning - The company plans to increase copper production to 150-160 million tons and gold production to 100-110 tons by 2028, with a CAGR of 9% for both metals [3][8]. - Adjustments for 2025 include an increase of 50,000 tons for copper and a decrease of 5 tons for gold compared to previous forecasts [3]. Financial Forecasts - The report projects net profits of 29.2 billion, 35.1 billion, and 42.6 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 38%, 20%, and 21% [4][9]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 293.4 billion yuan in 2023 to 401.8 billion yuan in 2026, with a revenue growth rate of 20.09% in 2023 and 8.54% in 2024 [9]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected at 16, 14, and 11 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [4][11]. - The report highlights a projected return on equity (ROE) of 19.64% in 2023, with a slight decline to around 21.98% by 2026 [10][11].