国联证券：并购方案落地，业务整合开启

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guosen Securities is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - Guosen Securities announced a plan to acquire 100% of Minsheng Securities for 11.31 CNY per share, reflecting a premium of 8.13% over the last closing price before suspension [3][5] - The merger is expected to position the combined entity among the top 20 firms in the industry, with a projected net asset scale of approximately 339 billion CNY post-merger [6] - There are significant opportunities for integration between brokerage and investment banking services, particularly leveraging Minsheng Securities' strengths in the investment banking sector [8][10] - Profit forecasts remain unchanged, with expected net profits for 2024-2026 at 8.8 billion, 10.1 billion, and 10.9 billion CNY, representing growth rates of 30.3%, 15.5%, and 7.9% respectively [3][13] Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - Guosen Securities plans to issue shares to acquire Minsheng Securities, raising up to 2 billion CNY through a private placement to support business development [3][4] Financial Performance - In 2023, Guosen Securities reported revenues of 2.955 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 12.68%, while net profit decreased by 12.51% to 671 million CNY [8] - Minsheng Securities achieved a revenue of 3.799 billion CNY in 2023, marking a 50% increase, with net profit soaring by 222.68% to 681 million CNY [8] Market Positioning - The merger is anticipated to create complementary advantages, with Minsheng Securities having a strong presence in Henan and Guosen Securities in Wuxi and southern Jiangsu [10] - In 2023, Minsheng Securities ranked 5th in the industry for IPOs, with a market share of 5.65%, while Guosen Securities ranked 22nd with a market share of 1.13% [10][11]