LI AUTO(02015) 国金证券·2024-05-21 05:02Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained Rating) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 revenue was RMB 25.6 billion, up 36.4% YoY but down 38.6% QoQ, driven by increased vehicle deliveries but impacted by pricing strategy changes and weaker-than-expected new product performance in March [2] - Q1 gross profit was RMB 5.28 billion, up 38% YoY but down 46% QoQ, with a gross margin of 20.6%, slightly up 0.2 pct YoY but down 2.8 pct QoQ [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 591 million, down 36.7% YoY and 89.6% QoQ, with a net margin of 2.3% [2] - The company's Q1 gross margin remained stable at 20.6%, but net profit was under short-term pressure due to high expansion costs, which are expected to improve after cost-cutting measures in May [2] - The company is expected to enter a turning point in Q2, with strong order performance for the new L6 model and price reductions for L7/8/9/MEGA, leading to a sales recovery [3] - Full-year net profit is expected to remain stable, with the company maintaining its optimistic outlook for sales despite delays in the launch of pure electric models [3] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 vehicle deliveries were 80,402 units, up 52.9% YoY but down 39.0% QoQ [2] - Q1 ASP per vehicle was RMB 302,000, down 13.3% YoY and 1.3% QoQ [2] - Q1 gross profit per vehicle was RMB 59,000, down 14.4% YoY and 15.3% QoQ [2] - Q1 net profit per vehicle was RMB 7,000, down 59.7% YoY and 83.2% QoQ [2] - Q1 R&D expenses were RMB 3.05 billion, up 64.6% YoY but down 14.1% QoQ, with an expense ratio of 11.9% [2] - Q1 sales and administrative expenses were RMB 2.98 billion, up 80.9% YoY but down 8.2% QoQ, with an expense ratio of 11.6% [2] Future Outlook - Q2 sales are expected to be between 105,000 and 110,000 units, driven by strong orders for the L6 model and price reductions for other models [3] - Q2 gross margin is expected to remain around 20%, with net profit expected to rebound as cost-cutting measures take effect [3] - The company's long-term outlook is positive, with the launch of 5 new models (including high-voltage pure electric and extended-range models) expected between 2024 and 2025 [3] - The company's net profit for 2024/2025/2026 is forecasted to be RMB 12.17 billion, RMB 19.36 billion, and RMB 26.83 billion, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 17.4x, 11.0x, and 7.9x [3] Historical Financial Data - 2023 revenue was RMB 123.85 billion, up 173.48% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 11.7 billion, up 681.65% YoY [4] - 2024E revenue is expected to be RMB 170.16 billion, up 37.39% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 12.17 billion, up 3.96% YoY [4] - 2025E revenue is expected to be RMB 239.84 billion, up 40.95% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 19.36 billion, up 59.09% YoY [4] - 2026E revenue is expected to be RMB 306.56 billion, up 27.82% YoY, with a net profit of RMB 26.83 billion, up 38.60% YoY [4]