恒顺醋业：业绩阶段性承压，期待激励到位、改革显效

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for the company [11][12]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.106 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 87 million yuan for 2023, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.52% and 37.03% respectively [14][15]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed a revenue of 460 million yuan, with a net profit of 55 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 24.89% and 24.23% respectively [14][15]. - The company is focusing on a "big single product" strategy, which is beginning to show results, as evidenced by a significant improvement in gross margin in Q1 2024 [16][15]. - The overall profitability is under pressure due to rising costs and increased expenses, with the total expense ratio rising to 27.79% in Q1 2024, up 7.46% year-on-year [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 21.06 billion yuan, with a net profit of 870 million yuan, down 1.52% and 37.03% year-on-year respectively [14][15]. - The gross margin for 2023 was 32.98%, a decrease of 1.38 percentage points compared to the previous year [16]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 anticipates revenues of 21.88 billion, 23.77 billion, and 25.66 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 200 million, 240 million, and 278 million yuan, reflecting growth rates of 129.6%, 20.5%, and 15.8% respectively [8][13]. Product and Market Strategy - The company is undergoing a product structure adjustment, with a focus on enhancing the sales of high-margin products, particularly in the vinegar category, which saw a gross margin increase [15][16]. - The sales of vinegar, wine, and sauce products showed mixed results, with vinegar sales increasing by 0.79% while wine and sauce sales decreased by 8.39% and 23.57% respectively [15][16]. - The company has expanded its distribution channels, increasing the number of distributors by 130 to a total of 2044, although direct sales have seen a decline [15][16]. Expense Management - The total expense ratio has increased, with sales expenses rising significantly due to higher promotional and advertising costs, which increased by 38.18% and 10.84% respectively [7][8]. - The report indicates that the company is facing challenges in maintaining profitability due to rising costs and increased operational expenses [7][8].