通威股份：短期业绩承压，龙头高质产能稳步扩张

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company [1][6]. Core Views - The company has announced its 2023 annual report and 2024 Q1 report, which showed performance below previous expectations. However, the company is viewed positively as a leading player in silicon materials and battery production, with a clear competitive advantage and steady capacity expansion [6]. - The target price has been adjusted to 26.60, down from the previous forecast of 52.50, reflecting a revised EPS forecast for 2024-2025 [6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 139,104 million in 2023, a decrease of 2% from 2022. The expected revenue for 2024 is 121,500 million, indicating a projected decline of 13% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was 13,574 million, down 47% from 2022, with an expected net profit of 2,530 million for 2024, representing an 81% decline [7]. - The EPS for 2023 was 3.02, with a forecast of 0.56 for 2024 and 1.33 for 2025 [7]. Market Position and Production Capacity - The company achieved a sales volume of 387,200 tons of high-purity silicon in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 50.79%, capturing over 25% of the global market share. The current production capacity is 450,000 tons, with an additional 400,000 tons under construction [6]. - In the battery segment, the company sold 80.66 GW in 2023, a growth of 68.11% year-on-year, with an annual production capacity of 95 GW expected to exceed 100 GW by the end of 2024 [6]. Strategic Developments - The company is actively expanding its module business, achieving a module sales volume of 31.11 GW in 2023, placing it among the top five globally. It is also enhancing its presence in both domestic and international markets [6]. - The report highlights the stabilization and recovery of silicon prices, a decrease in non-silicon costs, and the production of new battery technologies as catalysts for future growth [6].