Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group-S (09961 HK) [1][3] Core Views - Q1 2024 saw strong profit growth with revenue of RMB 11 91 billion, net profit of RMB 4 31 billion, and Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 4 06 billion, up 29%, 28%, and 96% YoY respectively [1][7] - Adjusted net margin reached 34%, up 12 percentage points YoY and 8 percentage points QoQ, driven by the recovery of high-margin outbound travel and operational leverage [1][7] - Domestic travel benefited from increased online penetration, while outbound travel saw a strong recovery, with international business expanding rapidly and inbound travel growing significantly [1][8] - Non-GAAP operating profit grew 44% YoY, with a margin of 32%, up 3 percentage points YoY, supported by operational leverage and improved marketing efficiency [1][9] Revenue Breakdown - Domestic hotel and air ticket bookings grew over 20% YoY, with vacation business exceeding 2019 levels [1][8] - Outbound hotel and air ticket bookings surged over 100% YoY, recovering to over 90% of 2019 levels [1][8] - International Trip com revenue grew approximately 80% YoY, with inbound bookings increasing over 4 times [1][8] Profitability - Gross margin stood at 81 2%, down 1 percentage point YoY, but high-margin outbound travel contributed positively [1][9] - Adjusted sales expense ratio improved by 0 4 percentage points YoY, remaining well-controlled at 19 1% [1][9] Outlook - Domestic travel growth is expected to slow due to high base effects, but online penetration will continue to support performance [2] - Outbound travel is expected to remain strong, with further recovery during the summer season, driven by improved flight capacity, lower ticket prices, and visa process enhancements [2] - The report slightly raises 2024 revenue growth forecasts and expects Non-GAAP net profit for 2024-2026 to be RMB 15 5/18 7/22 0 billion, with EPS of RMB 23/27/32 and dynamic PE of 18/15/13x [2] Industry Position - Trip com Group is a leading one-stop travel service provider with a strong foothold in both domestic and international markets, benefiting from its high-end traffic accumulation and supply chain advantages [2]
携程集团-S:一季度经调净利润同比增长96%,出境游复苏核心受益龙头
TRIP.COM(09961) 国信证券·2024-05-23 02:02