协鑫科技：有望以颗粒硅成本优势率先走出行业底部

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited (03800) with a target price of HKD 2.00 [2]. Core Views - GCL-Poly is expected to leverage its cost advantage in granular silicon to emerge from the industry bottom. Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in 2023, the company is positioned for recovery as it optimizes costs and improves production efficiency [2]. - The company plans to repurchase or distribute dividends of no less than RMB 2.6 billion over the next three years, indicating confidence in future cash flows [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, GCL-Poly reported total revenue of RMB 33.7 billion, a decrease of 6.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin decline of 14 percentage points to 34.7%. Net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 84.7% to RMB 2.51 billion [2][5]. - For Q1 2024, the company faced continued pressure with a net profit of RMB 0.33 billion, significantly down year-on-year, primarily due to the sharp decline in silicon material and wafer prices [2]. - The company achieved a significant increase in granular silicon production capacity, reaching 340,000 tons by the end of 2023, a 20,000-ton increase from the beginning of the year, with shipments of 226,000 tons, up 141% year-on-year [2]. Production and Cost Efficiency - GCL-Poly's average manufacturing cost for granular silicon decreased by 27% by the end of 2023, positioning it at the forefront of the industry. The average production cost in Baotou Xin Yuan was as low as RMB 35.9 per kilogram [2]. - The company expects to maintain high operating rates across its four major production bases post-Q2 2024, with cash costs projected to fall below RMB 34 per kilogram by year-end [2]. Profit Forecast - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2024-2026, estimating net profits of RMB 2.3 billion, RMB 3.8 billion, and RMB 4.7 billion respectively, reflecting the low price stabilization of silicon materials and the cost advantages of granular silicon [2][5].