PDD(US:PDD) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-05-23 07:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of May 22, 2024 [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the main site monetization rate continues to improve, and TEMU's losses are narrowing more than expected. The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth driven by its expansion and improved operational efficiency [3][5]. - The report projects revenue growth for 2024-2026, with non-GAAP net profit forecasts of 144.6 billion, 172.9 billion, and 212.1 billion yuan respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company's revenue reached 86.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 131%, with non-GAAP net profit of 30.6 billion yuan, up 202% year-on-year, both exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [4]. - The revenue breakdown shows that online marketing revenue grew by 56% to 42.6 billion yuan, driven by growth in GMV and improved monetization rates, while transaction revenue surged by 327% to 44.3 billion yuan, mainly due to TEMU's scale growth [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The domestic e-commerce market share is expected to continue increasing, supported by stable low-price perceptions among consumers and differentiated supply advantages. The community group buying competition is slowing, allowing the company to maintain its traffic scale and achieve breakeven in operations [5]. - TEMU is accelerating its overseas expansion, focusing on key regions with improved advertising and subsidy efficiency, which is expected to lead to a significant reduction in losses [5]. Future Projections - The company forecasts significant revenue growth, with operating income projected to reach 460.5 billion yuan in 2024, 569.2 billion yuan in 2025, and 668.5 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 85.9%, 23.6%, and 17.4% respectively [6]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow at a robust pace, with projections of 113.0%, 19.6%, and 22.7% year-on-year growth for the same period [6].