IMDTECL(002128) 国海证券·2024-05-23 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, citing strong growth potential in its coal, aluminum, and power businesses [64] Core Views - The company is positioned as a comprehensive energy enterprise with integrated coal, power, and aluminum operations, benefiting from rising long-term coal contract prices, growth in electrolytic aluminum, and rapid expansion in renewable energy [8] - The company's coal business is expected to benefit from stable production, cost advantages, and rising long-term contract prices, with a 2024 Q1 average price increase to the upper limit of the NDRC's price range (300 RMB/ton) [8][23] - The electrolytic aluminum business is supported by self-supplied power, which mitigates the impact of rising electricity prices, and has 350,000 tons of new capacity under construction, expected to be operational by 2025 [8][36] - The power business is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity, with 4552 MW of installed renewable energy capacity as of May 2024, and is expected to add 44 billion kWh of new renewable energy generation in 2024 [8][56] Company Overview - The company is a leading brown coal producer in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, with integrated coal, power, and aluminum operations [11] - It has a total coal production capacity of 48 million tons, with an additional 35 million tons of capacity from its parent group yet to be listed [18] - The company's electrolytic aluminum business has become a major profit driver, contributing 54% of revenue and 27% of gross profit in 2023 [13] Coal Business - The company's coal production capacity is fully utilized, with stable output and significant cost advantages due to its open-pit mining model, maintaining a cost of less than 90 RMB/ton [8][26] - Long-term contract coal prices were raised to the upper limit of the NDRC's price range (300 RMB/ton) in early 2024, leading to a slight price increase in Q1 2024 [23] - The company's coal business achieved a net profit of over 3.5 billion RMB in 2023, with a gross profit margin of 54.5% [30] Electrolytic Aluminum Business - The company has 860,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, with an additional 350,000 tons under construction, expected to be operational by 2025 [36] - Self-supplied power from its 1.8 GW thermal power, 900 MW wind power, and 150 MW solar power plants ensures stable production and cost advantages, with energy costs accounting for only 27% of total aluminum production costs [39] - The aluminum business achieved a gross profit of 2,529 RMB/ton in 2023, with a gross margin of 15.5%, benefiting from high aluminum prices and low energy costs [39] Power Business - The company is rapidly expanding its renewable energy capacity, with 4552 MW of installed renewable energy capacity as of May 2024, and plans to add 44 billion kWh of new renewable energy generation in 2024 [56] - The company's power business is supported by its parent group, State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC), which provides significant advantages in project development and grid connection [51] - The company's power business achieved a net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2023, with a gross profit margin of 53.5% for its renewable energy segment [58] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 29.3/30.4/31.4 billion RMB in 2024/2025/2026, with net profits of 5.53/5.92/6.32 billion RMB, representing year-on-year growth of 21%/7%/7% [64] - The company's current PE ratio is lower than the average PE ratios of comparable companies in the coal, aluminum, and renewable energy sectors, with a PB ratio of 1.6x, also below the industry average [64]